What is moving the price right now?

The NCAB-based PCB indicator stands at around 108 points in May 2026 (base 100 = January 2025), up 1.5 percent versus April. NCAB has announced in the current Supply Chain Outlook that special substrates (HDI, high-layer-count server boards, low-loss materials) face Q3 price increases of 3 to 5 percent, depending on layer build-up and material class.

The dominant driver is AI server demand. Hyperscalers and enterprise customers are building data centres for AI workloads that require high-layer-count boards with low-loss substrates (Megtron 6/7, Tachyon). Substrate manufacturers in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have announced capacity expansions, but these will not be fully effective before 2027. Lead times for special substrates currently run 14 to 18 weeks, standard boards remain comfortable at 6 to 8 weeks.

The Iran war and Hormuz situation hit the PCB market indirectly. First, container freight from Asia carries insurance surcharges, since many routes run through or along the Persian Gulf. Second, energy costs hit substrate production, particularly at copper foil mills and fibre-glass weavers. Third, the Iran war has intensified the global supply-chain diversification discussion at OEMs, which stabilises demand for European PCB shops.

On the material side, copper foil and glass-fibre prepreg face mild upward pressure. Copper foil follows the LME copper dynamic with a lag, the market for ED foil (electrodeposited copper foil) is tighter in H1 2026 than in 2025 because battery applications absorb copper foil capacity. Glass-fibre prepreg makers in China and Taiwan signal H2 price increases.

For the next four to eight weeks we expect the NCAB indicator in a 107 to 112 point band, with clear upward pressure on special substrates and a stable level on standard boards.

What does this mean for European procurement?

Do not argue with a single raw material. Separate negotiations by material, technology and lead time. Standard boards (FR-4, standard layer count) are a different negotiation than HDI with 12+ layers or server boards with low-loss substrate.

For special substrates, secure H2 volumes now. The Q3 3 to 5 percent price increases are coming, NCAB has confirmed. A pre-contract with defined substrate material and defined layer build-up is the clean negotiation basis. Lead times of 14 to 18 weeks require around four months of lead-time ahead of the demand date.

For standard boards, use the current market easing. Lead times of 6 to 8 weeks are comfortable, spot prices competitive. A tactical anchor negotiation on larger volumes is worthwhile, since PCB shops in Europe and Asia report mid-range capacity utilisation.

For supply-chain diversification, audit European PCB shops as a second source. The Iran war and the geopolitical uncertainty have intensified the OEM discussion in DACH, which makes European shops competitive, particularly for mid-volume applications.