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Copper Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
03.08.2026
Current copper price on an LME cash basis (13,834.00 USD/t as of 31 July). Trend analysis on Chile's June recovery (INE up 5.1 percent, Codelco up 17 percent, Escondida around a third below the prior year), the still-pending Section 232 decision with country-of-smelt reporting in force since 30 July, and the LME stock drawdown below 250,000 t. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
The LME price is the global benchmark. Actual procurement costs include conversion, semi-finished product logic, supplier markups, logistics, and potentially currency effects.
AT A GLANCE
- LME copper cash closes at 13,834.00 USD/t on 31 July, up 3.7 percent on end-June and just below the July high of 22 July (13,895.00 USD/t).
- Chile's statistics agency INE reports 447,294 t for June at the end of July, up 5.1 percent year on year after minus 12.9 percent in May; Codelco delivers around 120,200 t (up 17 percent), Escondida runs around a third below the prior year.
- LME stocks fall to 249,850 t, below 250,000 t for the first time since late February and down 36 percent since end-May; the re-routing of metal to the US continues.
- Section 232: the decision on refined copper remains open five weeks past the deadline; the country-of-smelt and country-of-cast reporting requirement for wire and cable imports has been in force since 30 July. Keep closing H2 volumes only with a tariff adjustment clause.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The news of the week came from Chile, and for the first time in months it flips the sign. Statistics agency INE reported 447,294 t of copper for June at the end of July, up 5.1 percent year on year, after minus 12.9 percent in May. The recovery is carried by Codelco with around 120,200 t (up 17 percent), the first visible returns of its underground investment programme. The relief is unevenly distributed, though: Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, ran around a third below the prior year. The state producer delivers, the largest private producer falls behind.
The futures market did not read the Chilean numbers as relief. LME cash closed at 13,834.00 USD/t on 31 July, up 3.7 percent on end-June and just below the July high of 22 July. The reason sits in inventories: LME stocks fell to 249,850 t by 31 July, below 250,000 t for the first time since late February and down 36 percent since end-May, with daily outflows through month-end. The re-routing of metal to the US ahead of a possible duty decision continues.
The tariff question remains the unresolved core. The recommendation for staggered duties on refined copper (15 percent from 2027, 30 percent from 2028) has been with the President since 30 June; five weeks later, no decision has landed. The administration keeps building the infrastructure meanwhile: since 30 July, importers of copper wire and cable must report the country of smelt and country of cast per entry line. The origin tracking is in place before the decision is.
Structurally, the supply side stays tight. Antofagasta reported first-half output down 9.5 percent on 15 July, and El Teniente remains capped at around 301,000 t per year after the July 2025 accident. The ICSG balance with a 96,000 t surplus for 2026 remains the medium-term counterargument to the tight physical situation, and Chile's June recovery hands it data for the first time.
The Gulf situation keeps supporting the risk premium: Hormuz remains closed indefinitely, the products tanker Kaifan was hit in the strait as recently as 21 July, and Houthi threats towards the Red Sea widen the risk. For copper this works twice over, as a premium on all commodities and as a risk to the global economy.
What we watch: timing and wording of the presidential decision, the pace of the stock drawdown below the 250,000 t mark, and whether the Codelco recovery holds in July while Escondida stays weak.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Keep closing H2 volumes only with an adjustment clause for the Section 232 decision. The country-of-smelt and country-of-cast reporting requirement stopped being an announcement on 30 July and became practice: anyone supplying into US supply chains now needs the origin documentation as a fixed contract annex from upstream suppliers. It is becoming a permanent standard.
Tie the metal surcharge to the LME monthly average with 5-day averaging rather than a single date. July ran between 13,090 and 13,895 USD/t, a range of a good six percent within one month. With moves like that, the calendar would otherwise decide your calculation, not the market.
Show the metal value and conversion separately. The drop below 250,000 t of LME stock will surface as an argument for higher physical premiums in the coming weeks; that stays negotiable only if the metal share is cleanly isolated.
Do not read the Chilean June recovery as an invitation to fixed prices. It hangs on Codelco, while Escondida runs around a third below the prior year, the tariff decision is pending and the Gulf situation can hit freight and the economy at the same time. That combination can carry the price well above today's level short term; in both directions the market stays news-driven.
Copper Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band while the presidential decision is pending. (1) The duty recommendation for refined copper has been with the President since 30 June, and the country-of-smelt and country-of-cast reporting requirement has been in force since 30 July, (2) LME stocks are falling below 250,000 t with daily outflows, keeping the physical situation tight, (3) Chile's June recovery (up 5.1 percent) and the ICSG surplus of 96,000 t cap the upside. The Gulf situation still cuts both ways: a risk premium on commodities, but also a growth risk.
Risk Scenario
The President confirms the staggered duties on refined copper, the stock drawdown continues towards 200,000 t, the weakness at Escondida (around a third below the prior year in June) persists, or the Gulf escalation keeps freight and insurance costs elevated. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Whether they actually move in line with the commodity market or rise independently. Especially at high LME levels, a clean separation between metal value and processing cost is worthwhile, because otherwise a commodity price increase gets monetized twice.
Whenever price volatility makes fixed commitments risky for one side. Index-linked clauses tied to LME benchmarks create transparency and reduce renegotiation pressure. The key is choosing the right reference period and adjustment frequency.
With differentiation. LME stocks stand at 249,850 t as of 31 July, below 250,000 t for the first time since late February and down 36 percent since end-May, partly of Russian or Chinese origin that many Western consumers do not want to take. COMEX stocks, by contrast, are high because of the Section 232 effects, as physical metal was pulled into the US. High inventories are therefore no relief signal if they sit in the wrong place or are unsuitable. On the balance side stands the ICSG surplus of 96,000 t for 2026, and Chile's June data (up 5.1 percent, carried by Codelco) gives it support for the first time. Against that stand ongoing losses: Codelco's El Teniente remains capped at around 301,000 t per year, Antofagasta reported first-half output down 9.5 percent, and Escondida ran around a third below the prior year in June. As long as tariff uncertainty and such losses persist, copper can stay at a high level despite a relaxed overall balance.
