COMMODITY PRICES
Copper Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
22.06.2026
Current copper price on an LME cash basis (13,530 USD/t as of 19 June, easing into the Section 232 report). Trend analysis on the 30 June Section 232 follow-up report on refined copper (staggered duty 15 percent from 2027, 30 percent from 2028), the split Chilean June output data (Escondida minus 33 percent, Collahuasi minus 29 percent), the ICSG balance (96,000 t surplus for 2026) and the short-term relief for Europe from re-routed US metal. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
The LME price is the global benchmark. Actual procurement costs include conversion, semi-finished product logic, supplier markups, logistics, and potentially currency effects.
AT A GLANCE
- LME copper cash at 13,530 USD/t as of 19 June, easing slightly ahead of the Section 232 report.
- On 30 June the Section 232 follow-up report on refined copper goes to the President; a staggered duty is on the table (15 percent from 2027, 30 percent from 2028). 50 percent on semis has applied since 6 April.
- Cochilco June data split: Escondida minus 33 percent, Collahuasi minus 29 percent, Codelco plus 17 percent; the El Teniente risk persists.
- ICSG (April) sees a 2026 surplus of 96,000 t (revised from the 150,000 t deficit in October 2025); individual mine outages still keep the physical situation tight.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
In eight days, on 30 June, the US Department of Commerce delivers its Section 232 follow-up report on refined copper to the President. On the table is a staggered import duty: 15 percent from January 2027, 30 percent from January 2028. Refined copper has been exempt so far; the 50 percent on semis and 25 percent on copper-intensive derivatives have applied since 6 April. The market is positioning ahead of the date: LME copper cash eased to 13,530 USD/t as of 19 June, from 13,736 USD/t on 17 June.
On the supply side, Cochilco's Chilean June data are split. Codelco rose 17 percent, but the world's largest mine Escondida fell 33 percent and Collahuasi 29 percent. Cochilco called the June decline a turning point and flagged the risk of a supply disruption after the El Teniente accident as significant. For 2026 it cut its output estimate to 5.75 Mt.
In the short term, the re-routing of US-bound metal relieves European availability. LME stocks sit at around 352,000 t, down from a high near 389,000 t at the end of May. Once the market prices the duty decision, that window closes.
On the balance side, the ICSG April update remains decisive: it sees a 2026 surplus of 96,000 t and a 2027 surplus of 377,000 t, a reversal from the 150,000 t deficit forecast in October 2025. That removes the medium-term floor, even if individual mine outages keep the physical situation tight short term.
What we watch: the wording of the 30 June report. If it confirms the staggered duty on refined copper, the global trade structure shifts permanently.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Add a 30 June reference-date adjustment clause to H2 copper contracts. If the staggered duty on refined copper lands as discussed, the global trade structure shifts and the current premium window for European copper is finite.
Show the metal surcharge and conversion as separate positions. As long as both sit in one all-in price, it is not visible which part follows the LME and which is negotiable.
Tie the metal surcharge to the LME monthly average rather than a single date, ideally with 5-day averaging. That returns the daily-price risk to the quotation where it arises.
Do not let the ICSG surplus forecast push you into fixed prices. The balance is comfortable medium term, but individual mine outages like El Teniente and the tariff uncertainty can keep the price high short term.
Copper Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Front-running into the 30 June report holds the level around 13,500 USD/t. The ICSG update (96,000 t surplus for 2026, 377,000 t for 2027) removes the medium-term floor, while the re-routing of US-bound metal relieves Europe short term. Split Chilean June data (Escondida minus 33 percent, Collahuasi minus 29 percent) keep the physical situation tight.
Risk Scenario
The 30 June report confirms the staggered duty on refined copper; an escalating El Teniente outage; Chinese stimulus; renewed Gulf escalation. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Whether they actually move in line with the commodity market or rise independently. Especially at high LME levels, a clean separation between metal value and processing cost is worthwhile, because otherwise a commodity price increase gets monetized twice.
Whenever price volatility makes fixed commitments risky for one side. Index-linked clauses tied to LME benchmarks create transparency and reduce renegotiation pressure. The key is choosing the right reference period and adjustment frequency.
By distinguishing between LME spot price, regional premium, and processing surcharge. If premiums rise faster than the benchmark, local supply tightness is the driver. A clean should-cost approach helps separate structural from speculative components.
