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Copper Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
09.11.2026
Current copper price on an LME cash basis (13,955.00 USD/t as of 6 November, lowest close since early August). Trend analysis of the cut to Chile's output forecast, the sell-off in technology stocks after the US midterms, the continued rise of LME stocks in US warehouses and the November copper base. Procurement recommendations for European buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- On 30 October Cochilco cut its forecast for Chile: 2026 down 8.4 percent to 4.94 million t, 2027 only 5.08 million t instead of the 5.55 million t expected in August (Reuters). Supply stays structurally tight.
- LME copper cash fell to 13,955.00 USD/t by 6 November, the lowest close since 3 August. The trigger was a sell-off in chip and data-centre stocks after the US midterms (Reuters). This level suits partial fixings for 2027.
- LME stocks rose to 316,675 t, and the increase sits in US warehouses. Cash trades 175 USD/t above 3-month: prompt metal stays tight for Europe.
- LAPP November copper base: 1,338.77 EUR/100 kg, 3.1 percent above October. The November average so far points to a December base of around 1,300 EUR/100 kg (Tacto estimate after five trading days).
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
Chile is delivering less than expected. On 30 October the Chilean copper commission Cochilco cut its forecast: the country is now expected to produce 4.94 million t in 2026, 8.4 percent less than a year earlier; in August it had still expected 5.27 million t. For 2027 Cochilco expects 5.08 million t instead of 5.55 million t. From January to September Chile produced 3.63 million t, down 8.5 percent. More than 77 percent of the decline comes from Escondida, Spence and Codelco's mines, citing lower ore grades, maintenance and disruptions (Reuters, 30 October). At Codelco itself the affair over overstated output figures for earlier years is widening, and eight employees have been dismissed (Bloomberg, 30 October).
The price fell anyway. After the Democrats won the US midterm elections on 3 November, chip and data-centre stocks dropped sharply; according to CRU, copper is increasingly tied to sentiment about the data-centre buildout (Reuters, 5 and 6 November). LME cash fell from 14,449.00 to 13,955.00 USD/t between 30 October and 6 November, the lowest close since 3 August. The 3-month price lost 2.9 percent on the week, the most since March, and touched 13,636 USD/t intraday on 6 November, the lowest since 30 July (Reuters, 6 November).
Stocks keep rising, but in the wrong place. LME stocks reached 316,675 t on 6 November, 42,925 t more than on 23 October and the highest since early July (Westmetall). On 2 November alone 20,500 t were delivered into New Orleans. According to Morgan Stanley, deliveries are going only into US warehouses, and the market treats these tonnes as unavailable for now (Reuters, 2 November). Behind this is the US tariff proposal for refined copper of 15 percent from 2027 and 30 percent from 2028, on which Washington has still not decided.
Outside the US, metal is scarce. Cash trades 175 USD/t above 3-month, after 145 USD/t on 23 October. In Shanghai exchange stocks fell by more than 24 percent in the first week of November to 33,848 t, the lowest in almost three years, and the Yangshan premium for imported copper reached 210 USD/t, matching its 2013 record (Reuters, 5 and 6 November). CRU therefore cautions against reading the decline as a sustained correction.
For European buyers the monthly value in euros is what counts. LAPP has set its November copper base at 1,338.77 EUR/100 kg, 3.1 percent above October. After five trading days the November LME cash average stands at 14,151.30 USD/t, 2.6 percent below the October average, with the euro almost unchanged. What we are watching: whether cash holds its premium, Chile's output data for October and a decision by Washington on the tariff.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Use the dip for staggered fixings. Cash is almost 900 USD/t below the year high of 17 August and below 14,000 USD/t for the first time since August. If you have open demand for the first half of 2027, fix a further share now and spread the rest over the monthly averages for November to January. Do not fix everything: a further equity sell-off can push the price lower in the short term, while Chile and scarce stocks outside the US support the downside.
Budget cables and semi-finished products at 1,338.77 EUR/100 kg in November and at a lower base for December. The 3.1 percent increase for November is published and justified. For December the November average so far points to a base of around 1,300 EUR/100 kg; this is a Tacto estimate after five trading days, not a published value. Insist that price adjustments in December reflect this decline, and check every claim against the value LAPP publishes at the end of November.
Do not be persuaded by the stock figure. When suppliers or traders point to more than 316,000 t of LME stocks, ask where the metal is. The new tonnes sit in the US waiting for the tariff decision; in Europe and Asia prompt metal stays tight, as cash above 3-month and the record Yangshan premium show. Short-term additional volumes will therefore not get cheaper even as the forward price falls.
Keep the tariff clause for 2027 in the contract. Nothing has changed: 15 percent from 2027 and 30 percent from 2028 are proposed, and nothing has been decided. The adjustment clause is tied to publication in the Federal Register and settles the price basis for confirmed but undelivered volumes.
Keep separating the metal from processing. The cut to Chile's forecast affects concentrate and smelters; it does not justify blanket surcharges on processing. The metal component is settled against the agreed quotation, processing surcharges are shown separately and justified one by one.
Copper Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Within this range over the next four to six weeks. (1) Cash has moved between 13,955.00 and 14,822.00 USD/t since 1 October, with an October average of 14,532.48 USD/t, (2) the cut to Chile's output forecast, a backwardation of 175 USD/t and Shanghai stocks at their lowest in almost three years support the downside, (3) the stock build in US warehouses and weakness in technology stocks after the midterms cap the upside, (4) the open tariff decision keeps metal tied up in the US.
Risk Scenario
Within this range if several triggers coincide over the next three months. (1) Washington confirms the refined copper tariff from 2027 and the tonnes in US warehouses stay there, (2) Chile misses even the lowered forecast or another outage further tightens concentrate, (3) stocks outside the US keep falling and the LME backwardation widens. The year high of 14,850.00 USD/t would then be exceeded. Probability 20 to 25 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
They are structural, not cyclical. Cochilco now expects only 4.94 million t of copper from Chile in 2026, 8.4 percent less than a year earlier, and a recovery to 5.08 million t in 2027 instead of the 5.55 million t expected in August. More than 77 percent of the decline comes from Escondida, Spence and Codelco's mines, citing lower ore grades, maintenance and disruptions (Reuters, 30 October). According to Codelco, El Teniente will remain capped at around 301,000 t per year for about five years following the July 2025 accident (Reuters). The effect shows first in concentrate: Fastmarkets assessed treatment and refining charges at minus 232 USD/t at the end of August, a record low. Contracts covering 2027 therefore need a review clause linked not only to the LME level but explicitly to concentrate availability.
With a clause tied to an objective event. The US Department of Commerce has proposed an additional tariff on refined copper of 15 percent from 2027, rising to 30 percent from 2028; Washington had not decided by early November (Reuters). The effect is measurable: the LME stock build since late October is going almost entirely into US warehouses, and COMEX already held a record 720,712 t on 22 October (Reuters). These stocks are a pent-up price impulse that can be released in either direction on a single day. Tie the adjustment clause to publication in the Federal Register, not to a market assessment, and explicitly settle the price basis for confirmed but undelivered volumes. Annual contracts covering 2027 need this clause now.
Whether they actually move in line with the commodity market or rise independently. Especially at high LME levels, a clean separation between metal value and processing cost is worthwhile, because otherwise a commodity price increase gets monetized twice.
Whenever price volatility makes fixed commitments risky for one side. Index-linked clauses tied to LME benchmarks create transparency and reduce renegotiation pressure. The key is choosing the right reference period and adjustment frequency.
With care, because what matters is where the stocks are. LME stocks rose by 42,925 t between 23 October and 6 November to 316,675 t, the highest since early July (Westmetall). The inflow is going into US warehouses: on 2 November alone 20,500 t were delivered into New Orleans, and according to Morgan Stanley the market treats these tonnes as unavailable for now (Reuters, 2 November). Outside the US it is tight: Shanghai exchange stocks fell to 33,848 t in the first week of November, the lowest in almost three years, and LME cash trades 175 USD/t above 3-month (Reuters, 6 November). High stocks are no relief signal if they sit in the wrong place. For procurement this means: stagger fixings, settle on monthly averages and make the direction of stocks by warehouse location a review point in contracts.
