COMMODITY PRICES
Copper Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
14.09.2026
Current copper price on an LME cash basis (14,238.50 USD/t as of 11 September, after the record close of 14,737.00 USD/t on 8 September). Trend analysis on the unwound squeeze and the near-vanished cash premium, the still-open Section 232 decision, the DR Congo concentrate export ban and the negative treatment charges. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- Copper set a record cash close of 14,737.00 USD/t on 8 September and fell back to 14,238.50 USD/t by 11 September, down 3.4 percent in three trading sessions.
- The squeeze has unwound: the cash premium over the 3-month price fell from 207.50 USD/t on 11 August to 5.50 USD/t on 11 September, while LME stocks rose from 214,550 t to 234,475 t over the same period.
- The US tariff decision on refined copper is still outstanding ten weeks after the deadline; neither the Federal Register nor the presidential actions list shows a corresponding proclamation through 13 September.
- The ICSG balance shows a 131,000 t surplus for January to June 2026 but a 60,000 t deficit for June alone, with world mine production 1.1 percent below the prior year over the half (released 21 August).
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The week brought first the record, then the break. On 8 September LME copper cash closed at 14,737.00 USD/t, the highest level in the Westmetall series, and Reuters reported a record 14,703 USD/t for the 3-month price. Three sessions later, on 11 September, cash stood at 14,238.50 USD/t. That is 498.50 USD/t or 3.4 percent lower within one week, with no single piece of news to explain the break.
The explanation sits in the curve, and it is unambiguous. The cash premium over the 3-month price fell from 92.00 USD/t on 7 September to 5.50 USD/t on 11 September; on 11 August it still stood at 207.50 USD/t. The backwardation that has shaped this market since early summer has effectively vanished. At the same time LME stocks rose from 214,550 t on 11 August to 234,475 t on 11 September, an increase of 9.3 percent. Anyone paying record premiums for prompt metal in August is no longer paying them. Reuters attributes the easing to warehouse inflows that resolved the tightness outside the United States.
The distortion caused by the US tariff question remains the market's base condition. More than 1.2 million t of copper has flowed into the United States since February 2025, COMEX inventories reached a record 766,795 short tons, around 696,000 t, while stocks outside the US stayed historically low, and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks were last reported 85 percent below their mid-March peak. The decision on staged tariffs for refined copper, with the President since 30 June, had still not been issued on 13 September: neither the Federal Register nor the presidential actions list shows a corresponding proclamation. The most recent relevant proclamation on aluminium, steel and copper dates from 1 June. Every day without a decision keeps the diversion alive and pushes the price impulse further out.
On the supply side the balance stands against the disruption list. The ICSG reports a 131,000 t surplus for January to June 2026 but a 60,000 t deficit for June alone; world mine production over the half was 1.1 percent below the prior year and stocks at the end of the half stood at 2.027 million t. Then there is the concentrate side: on 9 July Platts assessed treatment charges at minus 132 USD/t and refining charges at minus 13.2 US cents/lb, record negative levels, as new Chinese smelter capacity meets a tight concentrate supply. A smelter that pays for the privilege of processing is not a sign of a comfortable raw material market.
A clarification on an item from our last issue: the Democratic Republic of the Congo has not stopped copper exports altogether. With effect from 6 August it banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, with one-year waivers possible in strategic circumstances, the aim being to build domestic processing. For European processors the distinction matters: what is affected is the concentrate chain, precisely the bottleneck the negative treatment charges describe. In Indonesia, Smelting Gresik has been down since 8 August for furnace repairs that the company expects to complete in the current quarter, the neighbouring Manyar smelter was due to restart in September, and Grasberg is expected to approach full capacity by the end of 2027.
What we watch: whether the stock builds in London continue, any move from Washington on the refined copper decision, the restarts at Gresik and Manyar, and the next ICSG release.
How resilient is your supply chain?
One company name is enough. The Risk Radar maps supplier dependencies and surfaces risk hotspots – in seconds.
What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
The summer's premium argument has been disproved, and you have the numbers for it. Anyone justifying availability or promptness surcharges with market tightness is arguing against a cash premium of 5.50 USD/t and a stock build of nearly 20,000 t since mid-August. For every such surcharge, demand current evidence rather than August evidence, and set an expiry date tied to the cash premium.
The single reference date remains the largest avoidable risk in the calculation. Between 8 and 11 September there were 498.50 USD/t. Tying the metal surcharge to one day hands the calculation to the calendar. Tie it to the LME monthly average with five-day averaging; the August monthly average of 14,353.40 USD/t shows how far a monthly mean and a daily peak can diverge.
Continue to close H2 and 2027 volumes only with an adjustment clause for the Section 232 decision. Ten weeks of limbo is not an all-clear, it is a stored price impulse that will be released in a single day. Draft the clause against an objective event, publication of a proclamation in the Federal Register, not against a market assessment, and settle within it the price basis for volumes already confirmed but not yet delivered.
The real structural squeeze does not sit in the cathode market but one stage upstream, and that is where your attention belongs in frame negotiations. Treatment charges of minus 132 USD/t mean smelters are paying to process concentrate, and the DR Congo concentrate export ban in force since 6 August tightens exactly that stage. Ask your semis suppliers about their cathode source and its concentrate supply, and name concentrate availability alongside the LME level as a review trigger in contracts running beyond 2027.
Use the easing to cover, without overrating the balance. The ICSG half-year surplus of 131,000 t sounds comfortable but conceals a 60,000 t deficit in June and mine production down 1.1 percent. If you have Q4 volumes open, cover in stages into the current weakness rather than waiting for a level implied by a balance the physical market does not confirm.
Copper Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) The squeeze has unwound, the cash premium stands at 5.50 USD/t and LME stocks have risen 9.3 percent since mid-August to 234,475 t, (2) the Section 232 decision on refined copper is still open ten weeks after the deadline and keeps the diversion into the US alive, (3) the ICSG half-year surplus of 131,000 t caps the upside while the 60,000 t June deficit and treatment charges of minus 132 USD/t support the floor, (4) the concentrate chain stays tight through the DR Congo export ban and the Gresik outage.
Risk Scenario
The President confirms the staged refined copper tariffs and pulls fresh US buying, warehouse inflows into London dry up and the stock build reverses, the Gresik restart slips beyond the third quarter, or the DR Congo concentrate export ban is widened. In that case the record close of 14,737.00 USD/t on 8 September is quickly regained and passed. Probability 30 to 35 percent over the next three months.
Related Commodity Prices
Related Procurement Glossary Topics
Frequently Asked Questions
It is structural, not cyclical. Codelco has confirmed to Reuters that El Teniente will remain capped at around 301,000 t per year for about five years following the July 2025 rockburst, against 356,000 t in 2024. That is roughly 55,000 t less per year from a single mine. The published ICSG balance for January to June 2026 shows a 131,000 t surplus, but a 60,000 t deficit for June alone and mine production down 1.1 percent. In any case the decisive stage is one step upstream: on 9 July Platts assessed treatment charges at minus 132 USD/t and refining charges at minus 13.2 US cents/lb, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates with effect from 6 August. Contracts covering 2027 therefore need a review clause tied not only to the LME level but explicitly to concentrate availability.
With a clause tied to an objective event. The recommendation for staged tariffs on refined copper has been with the President since 30 June. Through 13 September neither the Federal Register nor the presidential actions list shows a corresponding proclamation; the most recent relevant proclamation on aluminium, steel and copper dates from 1 June. The distortion is measurable: more than 1.2 million t of copper has flowed into the United States since February 2025, and COMEX inventories stand at a record 766,795 short tons, around 696,000 t. Ten weeks of limbo is not an all-clear, it is a stored price impulse that will be released in a single day. Draft the adjustment clause against publication of a proclamation in the Federal Register rather than against a market assessment, and settle explicitly the price basis for volumes already confirmed but not yet delivered. Melt and pour documentation belongs in the contract as a standing annex regardless.
Whether they actually move in line with the commodity market or rise independently. Especially at high LME levels, a clean separation between metal value and processing cost is worthwhile, because otherwise a commodity price increase gets monetized twice.
Whenever price volatility makes fixed commitments risky for one side. Index-linked clauses tied to LME benchmarks create transparency and reduce renegotiation pressure. The key is choosing the right reference period and adjustment frequency.
With differentiation, and September provides the case study. On 8 September cash set a record close of 14,737.00 USD/t; three sessions later it stood at 14,238.50 USD/t. What decided it was not a piece of news but the curve: the cash premium over the 3-month price fell from 207.50 USD/t on 11 August to 5.50 USD/t on 11 September, while LME stocks rose from 214,550 t to 234,475 t over the same period. At the same time COMEX inventories sit at a record 766,795 short tons, around 696,000 t, because more than 1.2 million t of copper has been pulled into the United States since February 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks are 85 percent below their mid-March peak. High inventories are therefore no relief signal if they sit in the wrong place, and low London stocks are no permanent state if traders can deliver in at any time. On the balance side, the ICSG reports a 131,000 t surplus for January to June 2026 but a 60,000 t deficit for June alone, with mine production down 1.1 percent. Read stocks, curve and balance together; taken one at a time, each of the three will mislead you.
