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Nickel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
14.09.2026
Current nickel price on an LME cash basis (16,270.00 USD/t as of 11 September, down 360.00 USD/t in one session). Trend analysis on the stock build to 274,320 t and the contango, Jakarta's refusal of a general quota increase, Indonesian ore output and the published European alloy extras. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- LME nickel cash fell 360.00 USD/t on 11 September to 16,270.00 USD/t, the weakest close since the year's low of 16,220.00 USD/t on 2 July, with the curve in contango by 145.00 USD/t.
- Stocks contradict any scarcity case: 274,320 t on 11 September after 264,744 t four weeks earlier, with 2,820 t added on 11 September alone.
- Aperam published its official European alloy extra for September on 24 August: 2,219 EUR/t for 1.4301, 4,024 EUR/t for 1.4401 and 1.4404, and 1,100 EUR/t for 1.4016. The October figure was still outstanding on 13 September.
- Jakarta is holding the line: no general increase in ore quotas is planned, with additional volumes only to cover smelter shortfalls; national ore output stood at 173.79 million t on 1 September against 320.37 million t for the whole of 2025 (Ditjen Minerba via Antara).
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
Friday ended the summer's sideways move. LME nickel cash fell 360.00 USD/t on 11 September to 16,270.00 USD/t, the weakest close since the year's low of 16,220.00 USD/t on 2 July. Until then the month had run unremarkably between 16,350.00 and 16,690.00 USD/t. The simultaneity is what stands out: on the same day LME stocks rose 2,820 t to 274,320 t. A falling price alongside a stock build is the clearest form of an oversupply signal.
The stock trend carries that reading beyond a single day. At 274,320 t, inventories sit above the 264,744 t of mid-August and back above the mid-June level of 274,152 t. The draw the market bet on in July has definitively failed to confirm. The curve fits: the 3-month price at 16,415.00 USD/t stands 145.00 USD/t above cash. A contango of that size pays for storage and invites warehousing rather than pulling material into the physical market.
From Jakarta comes the clarification that matters most for supply, and it reads differently from the summer's expectation. Tri Winarno, head of the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, has stated that no general increase in ore quotas will be granted and that additional volumes come into question only where smelters are left without sufficient ore. The blanket additional allocation still considered likely in August has therefore fallen away. The volumes tell their own story nonetheless: national nickel ore output stood at 173.79 million t on 1 September against 320.37 million t for the whole of 2025. Extrapolated over twelve months that is roughly a fifth below the prior year, while nickel state revenue rose to 21 trillion rupiah by the end of August, after 10 trillion in the same period last year. Less ore against higher levies is the cost calculation Indonesian smelters take into the fourth quarter.
The build-out continues regardless. On 10 September Vale Indonesia reported that the Bahodopi HPAL project in Morowali and the IGP Pomalaa project, with 120,000 t of annual MHP capacity, are progressing to plan and will shortly enter testing. For the battery chain that means further supply from the same source that already provides practically all supply growth.
In Europe the real purchase price is decided less by the LME than by the surcharge mechanism. Aperam published its official European alloy extra for September on 24 August: 2,219 EUR/t for grade 1.4301, 4,024 EUR/t for 1.4401 and 1.4404, and 1,100 EUR/t for 1.4016. The October figure had not been published as of 13 September. Outokumpu confirmed the cost picture on 2 September: EU trade measures have raised demand for European material and scrap, yet adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was 17 million EUR, and for the third quarter the company expects volumes up to 10 percent lower on rising costs and Middle East uncertainty. The trade side adds to this: the melt-and-pour requirement applies from 1 October with a one-year transition, and the quota for Taiwanese cold-rolled stainless was 90.96 percent used as of 13 September.
What we watch: Aperam's October alloy extra, the direction of LME stocks after the 11 September jump, Indonesian output in the closing quarter, and the INSG meeting in the week of 12 October, the first opportunity for an updated balance.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
The buyer's position we recommended at the end of August has been confirmed and has become more comfortable still. The price sits 580 USD/t below the level of the last update, stocks are rising and the curve is in contango. If you have stainless business open, there is no reason to hurry. The trigger for fixing remains defined, however: a sustained stock draw below 260,000 t, or a reversal in Jakarta on ore quotas.
Check mill surcharge demands against the published figure now, not against a feeling. Aperam's official September value is 2,219 EUR/t for 1.4301 and 4,024 EUR/t for 1.4401 and 1.4404. Make the relevant mill's monthly surcharge mechanism an explicit part of the contract, including publication date and calculation basis. Where a supplier works with its own unpublished surcharge, require the derivation against the LME monthly average and the alloy content.
In the next increase round, separate strictly by cause, because the nickel price is not carrying it. The LME sits 6.7 percent below its mid-June level. What mills are asking for comes, on their own account, from scrap, freight and energy: Outokumpu reports 17 million EUR of adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter and expects volumes up to 10 percent lower in the third. Require the split into LME component against the monthly average, scrap component, energy and processing; only the first is tied to the nickel price, and that one currently argues for you.
The import side needs a decision before 1 October. For stainless flat products the melt-and-pour requirement applies on the same date as for carbon steel, with a transition to 30 September 2027, and the quota for Taiwanese cold-rolled stainless stood at 90.96 percent on 13 September. Settle with your distributor now which origins still have Q4 quota capacity and which evidence documents he can supply during the transition.
Strategically the price weakness changes nothing about concentration. Practically all supply growth comes from Indonesia, and policy there steers it with quotas that can change without notice. Second sources, higher scrap content in specifications and longer terms with clearly named review triggers remain the right answer, precisely now, while they can be negotiated cheaply.
Nickel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) The stock build to 274,320 t and the 145.00 USD/t contango signal a well supplied metal, (2) Jakarta has refused a general quota increase, which supports the medium term but creates no physical tightness now, (3) European stainless demand stays weak, with Outokumpu expecting volumes up to 10 percent lower in the third quarter, (4) the INSG deficit of 32,000 t for 2026 dates from the April forecast and is not reviewed until the week of 12 October. A break of the 16,220.00 USD/t year low would signal the lower end of the band.
Risk Scenario
Indonesian output stays well below the prior year in the closing quarter and forces smelters back into expensive ore imports, LME stocks turn durably below 260,000 t, or the INSG confirms a larger deficit than forecast in mid-October. A sustained stock draw would be the confirming signal in every case. Probability 20 to 25 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
The surplus years are officially over. In October 2025 the International Nickel Study Group turned its 2026 balance from a forecast surplus of 261,000 t into a deficit of 32,000 t, the first global nickel deficit since 2021: world primary production 3.715 million t against usage of 3.747 million t. That forecast, from the April 2026 release, remains the current position; the next INSG meeting takes place in the week of 12 October 2026 and is the first opportunity for a revision. The scale is moderate rather than dramatic, and it currently stands against LME stocks of 274,320 t. For contract design that means assuming 16,000 to 18,000 USD/t as a cap is not tenable. Contracts should name Indonesian quota enforcement and the direction of LME stocks as explicit review triggers.
Wherever suppliers want to pass on a rising nickel price directly and in full even though European stainless demand remains subdued and the LME is falling. Outokumpu earned an adjusted EUR 17 million in its European business in the second quarter of 2026 and expects volumes up to 10 percent lower in the third quarter on rising costs and Middle East uncertainty (2 September); it names scrap, freight and fuel as the real cost drivers alongside the metal. Separating surcharge, base material, processing and energy components shows which part of a demand hangs on the LME and which does not, and creates negotiating leverage exactly there.
Less than the summer expected, and the direction has turned. The blanket additional quota of several tens of millions of wmt rumoured in August is not coming: Tri Winarno, head of the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, has stated that no general increase in ore quotas will be granted and that additional volumes come into question only where smelters are left without sufficient ore (Antara, 9 September). The volumes show the effect: national nickel ore output stood at 173.79 million t on 1 September against 320.37 million t for the whole of 2025, while nickel state revenue rose to 21 trillion rupiah by the end of August after 10 trillion in the same period last year. PT Weda Bay Nickel remains partly in care-and-maintenance on a sharply cut quota. With around 60 percent of world production, Indonesia remains the place where the nickel price is decided. That the price is falling despite tighter ore output is down to high LME stocks; if that picture turns, the risk turns back to the upside immediately.
When the actual nickel content, the contractual surcharge mechanics and the current market environment fit together. In mid-September 2026 the environment argues clearly for buyers: LME nickel cash fell to 16,270.00 USD/t on 11 September, LME stocks rose to 274,320 t and are back above the June level, and the curve is in contango by 145.00 USD/t. A full pass-through of the LME price in the alloy surcharge is hard to justify in this situation. The surcharge becomes reliable when you can check it against a published figure: Aperam's official European alloy extra for September, issued on 24 August, is 2,219 EUR/t for 1.4301, 4,024 EUR/t for 1.4401 and 1.4404, and 1,100 EUR/t for 1.4016. Make the relevant mill's monthly surcharge mechanism, including publication date and calculation basis, an explicit part of the contract, and require a clean separation of material, processing and energy components.
