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Nickel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
22.06.2026
Current nickel price on an LME cash basis (17,590 USD/t as of 19 June, around 8 percent below the early-June level). Trend analysis on the Eramet Weda Bay production halt (2026 quota 12 Mwmt, RKAB revision by end-July), Indonesia's quota cut to 270 Mwmt, the INSG deficit of 32,000 t for 2026 (first since 2021) and weak European stainless demand. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
For many procurement teams, nickel acts indirectly through stainless steel, alloy surcharges and specialty materials. The LME price is therefore relevant, but never the full pricing logic.
AT A GLANCE
- LME nickel cash at 17,590 USD/t as of 19 June, around 8 percent below the early-June level; the April rally is largely unwound.
- Eramet halted Weda Bay production in early June (2026 quota 12 million wmt, from 42); RKAB revision expected by end-July.
- Indonesia cuts the national RKAB quota to 270 million wmt (from 375); INSG expects the first deficit since 2021 for 2026 (32,000 t).
- LME stocks stay high around 276,000 t; weak European stainless demand caps the price short term.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
Nickel has largely unwound the April rally. LME nickel cash stands at 17,590 USD/t as of 19 June, down from over 19,000 USD/t in early June, a drop of around 8 percent. The Gulf de-escalation initially priced in, together with weak European stainless demand, took the risk premium out of the price. The relief is fragile, though: on 20 June Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again, while CENTCOM still reports ship traffic.
Structurally, supply keeps tightening. Eramet halted production at PT Weda Bay Nickel in early June after the 2026 RKAB quota of 12 million wmt (against 42 million in 2025) was exhausted by late May. Weda Bay recently supplied around a third of the ore processed at the Weda Bay Industrial Park. Eramet is negotiating a quota increase with the ministry; the usual RKAB revision is due by the end of July.
At the national level, Indonesia cut the 2026 RKAB mining quota to 270 million wmt, from 375 million in 2025 and below expected demand of 345 million. The INSG expects the first global deficit since 2021 for 2026 (32,000 t).
LME stocks remain high at around 276,000 t and do not support the price short term. For European stainless processors, what matters most is whether the Indonesian quota is raised in July or whether ferronickel availability tightens further in the second half.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Tie the alloy surcharge to the LME nickel monthly average with a cap-and-floor band. After the drop to 17,590 USD/t a fixed surcharge does not pass on the current level, a monthly average does.
Keep the Indonesian RKAB revision by end-July on your radar. If the quota increase for Weda Bay comes in tighter than expected, ferronickel availability tightens in the second half, and lead time becomes its own negotiating point alongside price.
For alloy-intensive stainless products, show the nickel share transparently in the costing and negotiate it separately from the base price. The weak European stainless demand gives you room right now.
Nickel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
After the drop to 17,590 USD/t the market trades in this band. The INSG deficit of 32,000 t and Indonesia's quota cuts support medium term, but high LME stocks around 276,000 t and weak European stainless demand cap the upside short term. The RKAB revision by end-July is the next trigger.
Risk Scenario
The July RKAB revision comes in tighter than expected, more mines move into care-and-maintenance, or Chinese stainless mills draw material. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Wherever suppliers pass through a rising nickel price directly and fully, even though inventories are high and the market remains fundamentally in surplus. Separating surcharges, base material costs, and other cost components creates negotiation leverage.
More than from any other single source. The production cuts at Weda Bay and at the national level demonstrate that Indonesia can actively manage supply. This is currently the central upside risk for nickel prices.
Only when the LME nickel price actually rises significantly and sustainably. With inventories elevated and the market in fundamental surplus, blanket surcharge demands deserve scrutiny. A clean separation of base material cost and processing charges is essential.
