What is moving the price right now?

The October copper base will come in higher than September, but only slightly. LAPP calculates the LCP from the average of LME cash in the previous month, converted at the ECB reference rate. The September cash average stood at 14,480.45 USD/t to 25 September, 0.9 percent above the August average of 14,353.40 USD/t. Because the euro was weaker in September, the rise in euro terms is slightly larger at around 1.4 percent. By our calculation the October LCP therefore lands at around 1,290 to 1,300 EUR/100 kg, after 1,277.95 EUR/100 kg in September. LAPP usually publishes the value between the 28th and the 30th of the month; on 28 September it was not yet out.

Chinese buyers drove copper in the second half of September. LME cash rose from its low of 14,044.00 USD/t on 14 September for six sessions in a row to 14,797.00 USD/t on 22 September, the longest run in four months (Bloomberg). Ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the holiday week from 1 to 7 October, processors restocked, and cathode stocks in Shanghai fell to 43,900 t, the lowest since 2023 (Reuters). On 25 September cash closed at 14,740.00 USD/t. A correction to our last edition: the year's cash high is 14,850.00 USD/t on 17 August, not 14,737.00 USD/t on 8 September.

In London, by contrast, copper is more readily available. LME stocks rose to 251,500 t by 25 September. The US tariff decision on refined copper is still pending; Reuters reported on 10 September that the plan had stalled over affordability concerns. As long as no decision is made, metal stays tied up in US warehouses, and a decision could shift the copper base in the short term.

Aluminium shows a similar picture. The cash average for September to the 25th stood at 3,284.84 USD/t, around 1 percent above August. For cables with aluminium conductors a slightly higher base can therefore also be expected for October, after an LAP of 420.50 EUR/100 kg in September.

What we watch: the published October LCP, copper demand after China's holiday week and the direction of LME stocks, which will decide the November value.

What does this mean for procurement in Europe?

Check October invoices against the published LCP, not against daily prices. By our calculation the rise in the copper base is around 1.4 percent. A supplier who asks for considerably more for October and cites copper has to show where the difference comes from. Check the metal surcharge against the formula in your contract: metal weight per metre, published quotation minus metal base. For most flexible cables the metal base is 150 EUR/100 kg, for telecom cables 100 EUR/100 kg and for underground power cables zero.

Do not buy into the restocking. The rise of the last two weeks came from Chinese buyers ahead of a holiday week while LME stocks in London are rising. If you plan larger cable volumes for the fourth quarter or the first half of 2027, spread the fixing across several months rather than locking everything in on an October value close to the record.

Separate metal and construction. At high copper prices there is a risk that a commodity rise is priced in twice, once through the metal surcharge and once through the base price. Require separate disclosure and check whether the base price has risen since the last agreement even though the metal surcharge already reflects the copper move.

Keep the US tariff decision as a review trigger in the contract. A proclamation on refined copper can shift the copper base in the short term. For annual contracts, agree a review tied to publication in the Federal Register and define which quotation applies to deliveries already confirmed.

Consider aluminium as an alternative where it fits technically. The LAP base is around one third of the LCP base per 100 kg. For larger cross-section power cables, switching to aluminium conductors can cut metal costs significantly where cross-section, connection technology and standards allow.

Decide when you check. LAPP usually publishes the LCP between the 28th and the 30th of the previous month. Check order confirmations from the first days of October against the value published then, not against a supplier's estimate.