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Aluminium Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
06.07.2026
Current aluminium price on an LME basis (3-month close 3,087 USD/t as of 3 July, around 17 percent below early June). Trend analysis on EGA's 2 July progress report (89 of 1,262 cells back in operation, alumina production early in Q3, full recovery up to a year; force majeure on European billet contracts remains), falling LME stocks (down 41 percent since the start of the year), the high 6063 billet premium and the CBAM levy phase. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
The LME price reflects the raw commodity basis. Actual procurement costs include physical premiums (e.g. P1020A Rotterdam, including CBAM cost), alloy surcharges, semi-finished product markups, freight and currency effects.
AT A GLANCE
- LME aluminium 3-month at 3,087 USD/t as of 3 July, around 17 percent below early June; the Gulf risk premium has largely unwound.
- On 2 July EGA reported faster-than-planned progress restarting Al Taweelah: 89 of 1,262 cells running, first alumina production early in the third quarter; full recovery takes up to a year. The force majeure on European billet contracts remains.
- LME stocks fall to 298,775 t, down 41 percent since the start of the year; the 6063 billet premium DDP North Germany last stood at 1,175 to 1,250 USD/t (29 May).
- Split the contract into four positions: LME base, origin premium, CBAM, conversion. The LME correction reaches the end price only partly.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
On 2 July EGA delivered its most concrete progress report yet on restarting Al Taweelah: 89 of 1,262 reduction cells are back in operation, frozen metal has been removed from more than 20 percent of all cells, and the alumina refinery is expected to produce again early in the third quarter. Repairs are running ahead of schedule, according to the company. At the same time EGA maintains that a full return to pre-incident output takes up to a year. The force majeure on European billet contracts, declared on 12 April after the drone attack, remains in force.
The LME price has absorbed the news into an ongoing correction. The 3-month close stands at 3,087 USD/t as of 3 July, down from 3,723 USD/t on 3 June, a drop of around 17 percent in one month. The drivers are the Gulf de-escalation, higher output in China and rising Indonesian smelter volumes against weak Chinese demand.
The physical situation in Europe is easing more slowly than the futures market. LME stocks have fallen to 298,775 t, down 41 percent since the start of the year. The Fastmarkets 6063 billet premium DDP North Germany, at 1,175 to 1,250 USD/t (last print of 29 May), still stood at double the February level. As long as the EGA volumes are missing, the billet market stays tight, even with the restart now visibly progressing.
On the regulatory side everything stays in place: the CBAM levy phase has been running since 1 January, and coal-based primary metal from India, Russia and parts of China carries an end-cost burden of 300 to 400 EUR/t. In the US, the 1 June proclamation adjusted the Section 232 structure again (the "entirely American" threshold cut from 95 to 85 percent, agricultural equipment and residential HVAC in the 15 percent category); for Europe this works indirectly through trade flows.
What we watch: the pace of the EGA ramp-up through July and the first billet-premium reaction to it. The next premium print decides whether physical relief follows the LME.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Keep splitting the aluminium price into four positions: LME base, billet or duty-paid premium, CBAM burden and conversion. The LME base fell 17 percent in a month; the premium did not. Without the split, suppliers will not pass the correction on.
Secure the LME base component for Q4 needs at the current level, but do not fix the premium. If the EGA ramp-up stays on plan, the premium correction comes over the next months; anyone locking in 1,175 to 1,250 USD/t for twelve months now buys the bottleneck at its peak.
Negotiate availability surcharges with an expiry date. The "Al Taweelah is down" argument loses force with every EGA progress report; a clause tying the surcharge to the continuation of the force majeure does that automatically.
Evaluate Norwegian and Icelandic metal as a CBAM-lighter alternative and check secondary-aluminium availability. For coal-based origins, 300 to 400 EUR/t of CBAM burden stays in the end price.
Aluminium Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) The EGA restart is running ahead of schedule and takes away the market's fear of a lost year, (2) higher output in China and Indonesia weighs, (3) weak Chinese demand caps recoveries. Still-high billet premiums and falling LME stocks (down 41 percent since the start of the year) support the floor.
Risk Scenario
The EGA ramp-up suffers setbacks, the Gulf situation escalates again (Iran refused direct talks on 30 June), or Chinese solar demand picks up. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
On separating the premium from the base metal price and on clearly defined adjustment mechanisms. Blanket price increases that bundle LME movement and premium changes should be challenged with data-backed breakdowns.
Through potential supply disruptions from smelters in the Gulf region (UAE, Bahrain) and higher energy costs. The direct impact on European premiums can be significant even if LME prices remain stable.
When local supply bottlenecks or logistic disruptions create tightness that the global market does not reflect. A falling LME price with rising regional premiums is a clear signal of structural decoupling.
