COMMODITY PRICES
Aluminium Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
22.06.2026
Current aluminium price on an LME basis (3-month close 3,398 USD/t as of 19 June, around 9 percent below the early-June four-year high). Trend analysis on the 17 June US-Iran framework deal and the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the continuing EGA force majeure on European billet contracts (restart pushed to September), the high 6063 billet premium, the CBAM levy phase, and the four-position logic of aluminium procurement. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
The LME price reflects the raw commodity basis. Actual procurement costs include physical premiums (e.g. P1020A Rotterdam, including CBAM cost), alloy surcharges, semi-finished product markups, freight and currency effects.
AT A GLANCE
- LME aluminium 3-month at 3,398 USD/t as of 19 June, around 9 percent below the early-June four-year high.
- The correction's trigger: the 17 June US-Iran framework deal, plus rising supply from China and Indonesia. The Hormuz reopening is fragile, challenged again by Iran on 20 June.
- Physical tightness persists: EGA force majeure on European billet contracts, restart pushed to September; 6063 billet premium DDP North Germany 1,175 to 1,250 USD/t (29 May).
- Split the aluminium contract into four positions: LME base, origin premium, CBAM, conversion. The LME correction reaches the end price only partly.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
Aluminium has given back the early-June four-year high. The LME 3-month close stands at 3,398 USD/t as of 19 June, down from 3,752 USD/t on 2 June, a drop of around 9 percent in just over two weeks. The trigger is the Gulf de-escalation: the US and Iran signed a framework deal to end the war on 17 June, and the Strait of Hormuz initially reopened. The relief is fragile, though: on 20 June Iran declared the strait closed again, while CENTCOM still reports ship traffic. The Friday close therefore reflects the initial relief, not a settled situation.
On top of that, higher output in China and rising Indonesian smelter volumes weigh on the price, while weak Chinese economic data drags on demand.
Physical tightness in Europe, however, persists. After the March attack on its Al Taweelah smelter, EGA is holding force majeure on European billet contracts, with the production restart pushed to September. The Fastmarkets 6063 billet premium DDP North Germany stood at 1,175 to 1,250 USD/t as of 29 May, against 560 to 600 USD/t at end-February. LME stocks have fallen in parallel to around 315,000 t, down around 38 percent since the start of the year.
Since 1 January, aluminium has been in the CBAM levy phase. Primary metal from coal-based sites in India, Russia and parts of China carries an end-cost burden of 300 to 400 EUR/t. The structural Russian-metal surcharge at European rolling mills persists.
For procurement this means the LME price has fallen, but the real sourcing price has not to the same degree. As long as the LME base, origin premium, CBAM burden and conversion sit in one all-in price, you only partly benefit from the LME correction.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Split the aluminium price into four separate positions: LME base, European billet or duty-paid premium, CBAM burden and conversion. Right now, with the LME base falling but physical premiums staying high, only the split shows which part actually eases.
If you need aluminium for the fourth quarter, secure volumes now. Lead times are lengthening and availability surcharges are rising while the EGA force majeure runs and the restart is pushed to September.
Use the LME window for the base component, but do not fix the premium at the current level. The Gulf de-escalation is not yet fully secured, and the billet premium can stay volatile.
Evaluate Norwegian and Icelandic metal as a CBAM-lighter alternative and actively check secondary-aluminium availability. For coal-based origins the CBAM burden feeds 300 to 400 EUR/t into the end price.
Aluminium Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
After the correction to 3,398 USD/t the market trades in this band, carried by (1) the Gulf de-escalation that unwinds the risk premium, (2) higher output in China and Indonesia and (3) weak Chinese economic data. Physical tightness via the EGA force majeure and high billet premiums supports the floor but reaches the LME price only indirectly.
Risk Scenario
The Hormuz reopening fails or is delayed (Iran threatened renewed closure on 20 June), the EGA ramp-up slips past September, or Chinese solar-aluminium demand picks up. Probability 30 to 35 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
On separating the premium from the base metal price and on clearly defined adjustment mechanisms. Blanket price increases that bundle LME movement and premium changes should be challenged with data-backed breakdowns.
Through potential supply disruptions from smelters in the Gulf region (UAE, Bahrain) and higher energy costs. The direct impact on European premiums can be significant even if LME prices remain stable.
When local supply bottlenecks or logistic disruptions create tightness that the global market does not reflect. A falling LME price with rising regional premiums is a clear signal of structural decoupling.
