COMMODITY PRICES
Aluminium Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
11.05.2026
Current European aluminium reference based on LME 3-month settlement (8 May: 3,503 USD/t, +9.5 percent in the month). Trend analysis on the CBAM levy phase since 1 January 2026 (300 to 400 EUR/t uplift on non-EU primary from coal-based sites), the EGA Al Taweelah ramp-up not effective before August, the 60 to 90 USD/t Russia sanctions premium, and the Iran premium on billet exports through the Persian Gulf. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
The LME price reflects the raw commodity basis. Actual procurement costs include physical premiums (e.g. P1020A Rotterdam, including CBAM cost), alloy surcharges, semi-finished product markups, freight and currency effects.
AT A GLANCE
- LME aluminium 3-month around 3,503 USD/t as of 8 May, up 9.5 percent in the month, near three-year highs. Germany's IKB sees 3,600 ± 200 USD/t for H1 2026.
- CBAM has been in its levy phase since 1 January 2026. For non-EU primary metal from coal-based sites, the CBAM burden can add 300 to 400 EUR/t in end-costs.
- Russian aluminium remains structurally avoided in LME inventory. Region-of-origin premiums at European rolling mills sit at 60 to 90 USD/t.
- The Iran war hits the billet market directly via Gulf export routes and insurance surcharges. EGA Al Taweelah ramp-up is not fully effective before August.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
LME aluminium 3-month trades around 3,503 USD/t as of 8 May, up 9.5 percent in the month and near three-year highs. Germany's IKB sees the primary aluminium price at 3,600 ± 200 USD/t through H1 2026 driven by sustained geopolitical tensions. European billet premiums are up 30 to 50 USD/t over the last weeks per Fastmarkets. Three layers, all reset since the start of the year, are moving the market together.
First, CBAM has been in its levy phase since 1 January 2026. Steel and aluminium are the first two sectors whose imports must pay for embedded CO2 emissions on 2026 imports, with certificate surrenders beginning September 2027. For non-EU primary metal from coal-based sites in India, Russia and parts of China, industry modelling places the CBAM burden at 300 to 400 EUR/t in additional end-costs. Middle Eastern producers like Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) are positioning solar-aluminium (CelestiAL) actively into European rolling-mill contracts to reduce the burden.
Second, the 2024 EU sanctions on Russian aluminium continue to keep LME warrant inventories structurally tighter. Russian metal continues to be avoided even though the LME formally allows the trade. Region-of-origin premiums at European rolling mills sit at 60 to 90 USD/t depending on end-product and compliance requirement.
Third, the Iran war hits the European billet market directly because parts of the Middle Eastern billet export route run through or along the Persian Gulf, and insurance and freight surcharges are reflected in premiums. EGA's Abu Dhabi facilities were hit by power outages during the early March escalation, and ramp-up is running slower than initially expected per Reuters updates, with full capacity not expected before August.
For the next four to eight weeks we expect the LME base in a 3,400 to 3,800 USD/t band with upward pressure on any further Hormuz escalation.
What does this mean for European procurement?
Separate the LME component, region-of-origin clause, CBAM reporting clause and conversion share into four distinct line items. A single flat price across these four components finances movements that you cannot steer.
For the CBAM component, demand a quarterly adjustment to EU ETS auction clearing prices, since those drive the quarterly CBAM certificate prices. With the levy phase from 1 January, importers from import-year 2026 onwards hold certificates whose price tracks the quarterly EU ETS auctions.
For the region-of-origin clause, define an explicit exclusion or admission list. Russia and Belarus are already excluded in most standard contracts, but other origin countries such as Iran and Tajikistan should also be expressly named. For LME warrant material, require a compliance check against the LME Russia listing policy.
Audit in the design phase whether structural parts in 6082 or 6061 can be substituted by suitable steel grades. The substrate competition calculation shifts with every further CBAM wave in favour of steel, since steel CBAM benchmark values are lower than aluminium values per tonne of embedded CO2. Two OEM tenders in April already showed substrate switches from aluminium to steel.
For secondary aluminium, audit availability actively. Where primary is tight and expensive, demand shifts to recycling, which adds pressure to secondary premiums. For most die-casting applications, secondary aluminium is technically suitable and CBAM-lighter because the embedded CO2 value is meaningfully lower.
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Aluminium Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
For the next four to eight weeks we expect LME aluminium in a 3,400 to 3,800 USD/t band. (1) CBAM levy phase active since 1 January, import premiums structurally higher. (2) Russian aluminium discount stays structural at 60 to 90 USD/t. (3) EGA ramp-up gradual, full capacity not expected before August. (4) Iran premium on billet persists while Hormuz insurance stays elevated.
Risk Scenario
In the risk scenario LME aluminium runs to 3,800 to 4,200 USD/t. (1) A Hormuz escalation tightens billet supply in Europe further. (2) Further EGA or Ma'aden plants report ramp-up delays. (3) China extends solar-aluminium subsidies. (4) US sanctions on Iranian aluminium exporters tighten. Probability over eight weeks: 25 to 30 percent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
On separating the premium from the base metal price and on clearly defined adjustment mechanisms. Blanket price increases that bundle LME movement and premium changes should be challenged with data-backed breakdowns.
Through potential supply disruptions from smelters in the Gulf region (UAE, Bahrain) and higher energy costs. The direct impact on European premiums can be significant even if LME prices remain stable.
When local supply bottlenecks or logistic disruptions create tightness that the global market does not reflect. A falling LME price with rising regional premiums is a clear signal of structural decoupling.
