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Aluminium Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
09.11.2026
Current aluminium price on an LME basis (3-month close 3,050.00 USD/t as of 6 November; cash trades 67.00 USD/t above). Trend analysis of the growing scarcity of prompt metal, LME stocks at their lowest of the year, the lower November aluminium base and the situation in the Gulf. Procurement recommendations for European buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- LME cash traded 67 USD/t above 3-month on 6 November, after 25 USD/t on 23 October; stocks fell to 227,600 t, the lowest of the year. Short-term additional volumes are getting dearer.
- LME 3-month closed at 3,050.00 USD/t on 6 November, 3.1 percent below 6 October. The level around 3,000 USD/t remains an entry point for partial fixings for 2027.
- LAPP cut its November aluminium base by 4.0 percent to 409.92 EUR/100 kg. The October decline must show up in your November prices.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and Al Taweelah runs at half capacity (EGA, 21 October). The Gulf risk is barely reflected in the forward price.
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
Prompt metal is getting scarcer even though the forward price is barely rising. On 6 November LME cash at 3,117.00 USD/t traded 67 USD/t above the 3-month price of 3,050.00 USD/t; on 23 October the premium was 25 USD/t, and on 9 October cash still traded below. LME stocks fell from 235,800 t to 227,600 t over the same period, the lowest of the year (Westmetall). At the start of the year warehouses still held more than 500,000 t.
The forward market has moved little. The 3-month price ranged between 3,042.00 and 3,097.50 USD/t in the first week of November. On 5 November aluminium rose 1 percent, on 6 November it eased 0.8 percent as copper and other industrial metals suffered from a sell-off in technology stocks after the US midterms (Reuters, 5 and 6 November). The price is 3.1 percent lower than on 6 October and 6.4 percent lower than on 6 August.
The Gulf remains the big unknown. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed to commercial traffic, tankers were hit again in early November (Reuters, 6 November), and there is no Qatari-mediated agreement between Washington and Tehran. By 21 October EGA had half of the reduction cells at Al Taweelah running again and expects full production in the first quarter of 2027 (EGA). There has been no new restart update since.
In euros the decline has reached buyers. The October cash average of 3,061.11 USD/t was around 216 USD/t below September. LAPP accordingly cut its November aluminium base to 409.92 EUR/100 kg, 4.0 percent below October. After five trading days the November average is back above that at 3,117.80 USD/t. The European premium stays high: the COMEX contract on the duty-paid European premium jumped to 574 USD/t on 1 October, triggered by a possible cut in the US tariff on Canadian metal (Reuters, 2 October). To our knowledge that cut has not been decided.
What we are watching: Chinese output data for October in mid-November, the development of the backwardation and stocks on the LME, and further restarts in the Gulf.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Insist that the October decline is passed on. If you settle on LME plus premium against the monthly average, your November basis is around 216 USD/t lower than in October; the LAPP base reflects this with minus 4.0 percent. Suppliers who do not pass on this decline must show which part of their claim is premium and which published assessment it relies on.
Plan additional volumes early. The cash premium over 3-month has almost tripled in two weeks, and stocks keep falling. Short-term call-offs beyond the frame agreement currently cost more than forward metal. Register demand for December and January now instead of buying it at short notice.
Fix further shares for 2027 on a forward basis. The 3-month price is around 3,050 USD/t, 6.4 percent below early August. Fix a further share of demand for the first half of 2027 and spread the rest over monthly averages. The upside risk from the Gulf and from intervention by Beijing in Chinese output remains.
Clarify origin and force majeure. Check what share of your demand comes from the Gulf or Canada, directly or via your extruders, get delivery commitments with a fixed premium confirmed until quarter end, and ask about the status of the force majeure on billet contracts declared in April. A clause that does not automatically pass the upstream supplier's force majeure on to you belongs in every new contract.
Include CBAM in the total cost calculation. A certificate price of 82.32 EUR per tonne of CO2 applied in the third quarter (EUROMETAL, 6 October). Request the CO2 intensity by origin and compare offers on a total cost basis; the low-carbon differential, most recently 15 to 30 USD/t, belongs in the offer comparison as a separate line.
Aluminium Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Within this range over the next four to six weeks. (1) The 3-month price has moved between 2,994.50 and 3,097.50 USD/t since 12 October, (2) a backwardation of 67 USD/t and stocks at their lowest of the year argue against a collapse, (3) China's high output and the Gulf restart cap the upside, (4) equity sell-offs slow recoveries, as most recently after the US midterms.
Risk Scenario
Within this range if one of the following triggers occurs over the next three months. (1) New attacks hit smelters or export routes in the Gulf and delay the Al Taweelah restart, (2) Beijing enforces the capacity cap and output falls below the summer rate, (3) LME stocks keep falling and the backwardation widens significantly. The 3-month price would then return to the level of August and September, and European premiums would rise further. Probability 20 to 25 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
The EU has switched instruments, and that changes the effect. The originally planned 15 percent export duty on aluminium scrap has been dropped. Instead the Commission is preparing a delegated act under the Waste Shipments Regulation to prohibit exports of aluminium scrap under CN 7602 to non-OECD countries, with adoption targeted for December 2026 (Fastmarkets, 7 September 2026). A duty would have made exports dearer; a ban keeps the volumes inside the single market and hits exporters rather than European users. For European users that will tend to dampen scrap prices once it applies. Two practical consequences: do not fix frame agreements for secondary material beyond the turn of the year without tying a review clause to adoption of the act, and get the recycled content in your specifications technically approved now, so you can actually use the volumes if they stay in the market.
On separating the premium from the base metal price and on clearly defined adjustment mechanisms. Blanket price increases that bundle LME movement and premium changes should be challenged with data-backed breakdowns.
Through potential supply disruptions from smelters in the Gulf region (UAE, Bahrain) and higher energy costs. The direct impact on European premiums can be significant even if LME prices remain stable.
Whenever the physical market gets tighter than the paper market, or when trade policy redirects volumes. Both apply right now. On the LME, cash traded 67 USD/t above 3-month on 6 November, after 25 USD/t on 23 October, and stocks fell to 227,600 t, the lowest of the year (Westmetall). The 3-month price itself, at 3,050.00 USD/t, is 3.1 percent below 6 October. Trade policy works through the premiums: the COMEX contract on the duty-paid European premium jumped 10 percent to 574 USD/t on 1 October, triggered by a possible cut in the US tariff on Canadian metal (Reuters, 2 October); to our knowledge it has not been decided. On top comes the low-carbon differential, most recently 15 to 30 USD/t (Fastmarkets, 4 September), which is not visible in the LME price. Always have the LME basis and the premium shown separately and check both against published values.
