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Aluminium Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
03.08.2026
Current aluminium price on an LME basis (3-month close 3,179.00 USD/t as of 31 July, cash above it: the market sits in backwardation). Trend analysis on Norsk Hydro's Q2 report of 22 July (EBITDA above expectations, Qatar drag), the EGA recovery with the force majeure on European billet contracts still in force, falling LME stocks (down 48 percent since the start of the year) and the new CIF Rotterdam premium assessment. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
The LME price reflects the raw commodity basis. Actual procurement costs include physical premiums (e.g. P1020A Rotterdam, including CBAM cost), alloy surcharges, semi-finished product markups, freight and currency effects.
AT A GLANCE
- LME aluminium 3-month closes at 3,179.00 USD/t on 31 July, up 2.2 percent on end-June; cash trades above it at 3,196.00 USD/t, the market sits in backwardation.
- Norsk Hydro reports Q2 EBITDA of NOK 8.92 billion on 22 July, above the expected 8.22 billion; higher aluminium prices and recycling margins carry the result, the Qatar stake limits the benefit of the tight market (Reuters).
- EGA has been ramping the Al Taweelah alumina refinery back up since 10 July (full production capability expected by end-2026); the smelter stays slow, the force majeure on European billet contracts remains in force.
- LME stocks fall to 264,400 t, down 48 percent since the start of the year; the last print of the 6063 billet premium DDP North Germany still dates from 29 May (1,175 to 1,250 USD/t), while Fastmarkets launches a CIF Rotterdam assessment in parallel.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The first hard number on what the Gulf disruptions mean for European producers came from Norsk Hydro: on 22 July the company reported adjusted EBITDA of NOK 8.92 billion (around 927 million USD) for the second quarter, well above the company-compiled consensus of 8.22 billion. Higher aluminium prices and stronger recycling margins outweighed weaker energy output and currency effects. The caveat is notable: Hydro's own stake in the Qatalum smelter in Qatar limits its benefit from exactly the tightness that carries prices (Reuters).
The futures market now confirms that tightness in the curve. The 3-month price closed at 3,179.00 USD/t on 31 July, up 2.2 percent on end-June; cash traded above it at 3,196.00 USD/t. This backwardation is the classic signal that prompt material is scarcer than forward metal. The inventory path fits: LME stocks fell with daily outflows to 264,400 t, down 48 percent since the start of the year.
On the supply side, EGA remains the central work site. The Al Taweelah alumina refinery has been running again since 10 July and is expected to reach full production capability by year-end, much faster than first estimated. The smelter returns only slowly (89 of 1,262 reduction cells running as of early July), and the force majeure on European billet contracts from 12 April remains in force. For the European premium landscape this means: the cause of the shortage is improving, the shortage itself is not yet.
On premiums themselves the data remains thin: the last available print of the 6063 billet premium DDP North Germany dates from 29 May (1,175 to 1,250 USD/t). The price reporting agency is responding: on 23 July Fastmarkets decided to launch a weekly calculated CIF Rotterdam billet premium. More transparency in the premium chain helps in any negotiation.
From China comes a dampening signal with a supportive side effect: June imports fell because overseas price levels are too high for Chinese buyers (Reuters). That relieves the world market short term, but also confirms how firm prices stand outside China. Output near China's capacity ceiling of 45.5 million tonnes remains the structural counterweight to the upside.
What we watch: the pace of the cell restart at EGA, the first CIF Rotterdam print, and whether the backwardation steepens as outflows continue.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Keep splitting the aluminium price into four positions: LME base, billet or duty-paid premium, CBAM burden and conversion. What is new is the curve argument: the backwardation shows the tightness sits in prompt material. Anyone covering Q4 needs via forward purchases currently buys below cash; that belongs as a fact in every price negotiation.
Secure the LME base component in tranches rather than on a single date. July ran in a narrow band, but between the EGA recovery and the Gulf situation the swing risk stays high in both directions; 5-day averaging or several buying windows return the price risk to the quotation.
Do not fix the premium for twelve months, and use the new transparency. With Fastmarkets' CIF Rotterdam assessment, the premium share can soon be mirrored against a second published reference point. Keep tying availability surcharges to the continuation of the EGA force majeure with an expiry date, not to vague market-condition wording; the fast refinery recovery argues the premium correction is getting closer.
Evaluate Norwegian and Icelandic metal as a CBAM-lighter and Gulf-independent alternative. Hydro's strong Q2 recycling business also shows where capacity is growing: secure secondary-aluminium availability early, before demand for it lifts the surcharges. For coal-based origins, 300 to 400 EUR/t of CBAM burden stays in the end price.
Aluminium Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) The EGA alumina recovery is running ahead of plan and limits the worst-case scenario while the smelter returns slowly, (2) the continuing Gulf escalation and the backwardation (cash above the 3-month price) put a floor under the market, (3) weak Chinese demand and high output in China and Indonesia cap the upside. Falling LME stocks (264,400 t, down 48 percent since the start of the year) support the floor further.
Risk Scenario
New attacks hit further Gulf smelting or logistics capacity, the Hormuz closure persists and keeps freight and insurance costs elevated, the EGA recovery suffers setbacks, or the backwardation deepens as stock outflows continue. Probability 30 to 35 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
On separating the premium from the base metal price and on clearly defined adjustment mechanisms. Blanket price increases that bundle LME movement and premium changes should be challenged with data-backed breakdowns.
Through potential supply disruptions from smelters in the Gulf region (UAE, Bahrain) and higher energy costs. The direct impact on European premiums can be significant even if LME prices remain stable.
When local supply bottlenecks or logistic disruptions create tightness that the global market does not reflect. A falling LME price with rising regional premiums is a clear signal of structural decoupling.
