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Aluminium Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
14.09.2026
Current aluminium price on an LME basis (3-month close 3,250.00 USD/t as of 11 September; cash sits 24.00 USD/t above it and the backwardation is back). Trend analysis on the completed Alunorte ramp-up, the European smelter restarts, the planned EU export ban on aluminium scrap and the softening premium chain. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- LME aluminium 3-month closed at 3,250.00 USD/t on 11 September, giving back 68.00 USD/t in a single day; cash at 3,274.00 USD/t is once again above the forward, and the backwardation is back.
- The alumina disruption is over: Norsk Hydro ramped Alunorte back to full capacity as early as 13 August after agreeing temporary terminal access with CELBA. Lost production 100,000 to 120,000 t, Q3 impact 75 to 100 million USD.
- Europe's smelter base is refilling: Alcoa San Ciprián is back at full production, Hydro has restarted Slovalco and Century has restarted Nordural, and Alba has acquired Aluminium Dunkerque (Fastmarkets, 3 September).
- The EU has dropped the planned 15 percent aluminium scrap export duty and is instead preparing a delegated act under the Waste Shipments Regulation to prohibit exports of aluminium scrap (CN 7602) to non-OECD countries, with adoption targeted for December 2026 (Fastmarkets, 7 September).
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
A correction on our own account first. Our last issue carried the Alunorte curtailment to 50 percent with no date for normalisation. In fact Norsk Hydro announced on 13 August, two days after the disruption, that the refinery was ramping back to full capacity after Alunorte agreed temporary terminal access with CELBA. Lost production comes to 100,000 to 120,000 t and the third-quarter impact remains 75 to 100 million USD. A permanent solution for gas access is still outstanding, but the acute cost argument for the Western smelter base no longer applies.
The quotation has corrected accordingly. The 3-month price closed at 3,250.00 USD/t on 11 September after standing at 3,338.00 USD/t on 9 September, with 68.00 USD/t lost on Friday alone. That is minus 3.7 percent over the month and minus 7.0 percent over three months. The curve is the notable part: on 11 September cash at 3,274.00 USD/t stood 24.00 USD/t above the forward. The backwardation that expired in August is back. Prompt metal is dearer than forward again while the forward price falls.
The stock picture supports that reading. LME stocks at 244,100 t on 11 September sit below the 253,400 t of mid-August and the 322,000 t of mid-June, and 52.1 percent below the 509,250 t recorded on 2 January. The draw continues, only more slowly. A market with falling stocks, backwardation and a falling forward price is not pricing scarcity; it is pricing weak expectations against physical supply that remains tight.
On the supply side, capacity is returning in Europe. Alcoa has brought San Ciprián in Spain back to full production after curtailing it over high power costs, Norsk Hydro has restarted Slovalco in Slovakia, Century Aluminum has restarted Nordural in Iceland, and Alba has acquired Aluminium Dunkerque. On 24 August Norsk Hydro signed a power purchase agreement with Statkraft for 876 GWh per year covering 2031 to 2040. The common denominator is electricity: where energy costs have become negotiable, capacity comes back. Running the other way, Indonesia is building: 1.5 to 1.8 million t of annual capacity is expected there by the end of 2026, with PT Hua Chin Aluminium Indonesia alone planning 480,000 t. The bottleneck therefore migrates to alumina, since the new Indonesian smelters will need more than 4 million t of additional alumina a year while refinery capacity in Australia, China and the Atlantic market barely grows and Guinea's FOB bauxite prices trade near break-even.
The most important regulatory news for European buyers concerns scrap. The Commission has dropped the planned 15 percent aluminium scrap export duty and is instead preparing a delegated act under the Waste Shipments Regulation to prohibit exports of aluminium scrap under CN 7602 to non-OECD countries. Adoption is targeted for December 2026. A ban works differently from a duty: it keeps volumes inside the single market rather than making them dearer, and it hits exporters rather than European users. For secondary strategy this is the quarter's most relevant development.
In the premium chain the easing continues. The Rotterdam P1020A premium, in-warehouse duty paid, stood at 490 to 520 USD/t on 8 September, after the year's high of 575 to 600 USD/t on 2 April. The Brescia billet premium fell to 1,075 to 1,150 USD/t by 28 August, 11 percent below the 5 June peak. Against that trend the low-carbon differential is rising: 15 to 30 USD/t on 4 September after 10 to 25 USD/t the previous month, a direct consequence of CBAM differentiation. EGA has updated neither its pot-cell count nor the force majeure on European billet contracts since 26 August; what it did announce was a technology agreement with NALCO on 8 September and the acquisition of 80 percent of Italian recycler Eco Green on 10 September.
What we watch: the drafting of the delegated act on scrap exports, the direction of LME stocks now that backwardation has returned, the alumina market ahead of the Indonesian ramp-up, and any lifting of the EGA force majeure.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Take the alumina argument out of live demands. Suppliers who have been citing the Alunorte curtailment since August are arguing from an event that ended after two days. For every cost increase, require a reference to the specific origin and the specific period, and strike any line whose justification rests on a disruption that is over.
The curve has changed sides again, and that changes the hedging logic for the second time in six weeks. With backwardation back, prompt metal is dearer than forward while the forward price itself falls. If you are negotiating annual volumes for 2027, that is a factual argument for staggered forward windows rather than a single fixing date. Set the LME component across several buying windows or a five-day average; 11 September, with 68.00 USD/t lost in one session, shows what a single reference date can cost.
Prepare your secondary strategy for the export ban now. A ban on exporting aluminium scrap to non-OECD countries keeps volumes inside the single market and will tend to dampen European scrap prices once it applies, with adoption targeted for December 2026. That opens two lines of action. First, do not fix frame agreements for secondary material beyond the turn of the year without a review clause tied to adoption of the delegated act. Second, get the recycled content in your specifications technically approved now, so you can use the volumes if they stay in the market.
Negotiate the premium component against the published references, not against narratives. The Rotterdam premium at 490 to 520 USD/t on 8 September sits around 80 USD/t below the April high, and the Brescia billet premium 11 percent below its June high. If you have been paying unchanged premiums since the spring, you have a claim. The reverse holds for the low-carbon differential, which has risen to 15 to 30 USD/t: if you need CBAM-light origins, budget that premium rather than dispute it. Norwegian and Icelandic material remains the CBAM-lighter, Gulf-independent route, and with Slovalco and Nordural restarted, availability is better than it was in the spring.
Keep the EGA status as a review trigger in the contract. There has been no update on pot cells, refinery or the force majeure on European billet contracts since 26 August. Availability surcharges based on that force majeure need an expiry date and an evidence requirement; the target date EGA itself names for full production is the first quarter of 2027.
Aluminium Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) The Alunorte alumina disruption ended on 13 August and the acute cost argument falls away, (2) European capacity is returning (San Ciprián, Slovalco, Nordural) and eases physical supply in Europe, (3) the return of backwardation alongside still-falling LME stocks (244,100 t on 11 September) keeps prompt metal tight and supports the floor, (4) the Indonesian capacity build and the softening Rotterdam and billet premiums cap the upside.
Risk Scenario
The alumina market tips ahead of the Indonesian ramp-up as more than 4 million t of additional annual demand meets barely growing refinery capacity, new strikes hit smelting or logistics capacity in the Gulf, the Hormuz corridor is never implemented, or EGA extends the force majeure on European billet contracts beyond the first quarter of 2027. Probability 20 to 25 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
The EU has switched instruments, and that changes the effect. The originally planned 15 percent export duty on aluminium scrap has been dropped. Instead the Commission is preparing a delegated act under the Waste Shipments Regulation to prohibit exports of aluminium scrap under CN 7602 to non-OECD countries, with adoption targeted for December 2026 (Fastmarkets, 7 September 2026). A duty would have made exports dearer; a ban keeps the volumes inside the single market and hits exporters rather than European users. For European users that will tend to dampen scrap prices once it applies. Two practical consequences: do not fix frame agreements for secondary material beyond the turn of the year without tying a review clause to adoption of the act, and get the recycled content in your specifications technically approved now, so you can actually use the volumes if they stay in the market.
On separating the premium from the base metal price and on clearly defined adjustment mechanisms. Blanket price increases that bundle LME movement and premium changes should be challenged with data-backed breakdowns.
Through potential supply disruptions from smelters in the Gulf region (UAE, Bahrain) and higher energy costs. The direct impact on European premiums can be significant even if LME prices remain stable.
Whenever the physical market becomes tighter than the paper market, or when regulatory premiums intervene structurally. Both can now be measured. The Rotterdam P1020A premium, in-warehouse duty paid, stood at 490 to 520 USD/t on 8 September, around 80 USD/t below the year's high of 575 to 600 USD/t on 2 April; the Brescia billet premium fell to 1,075 to 1,150 USD/t by 28 August, 11 percent below the 5 June peak. Against that trend the low-carbon differential is rising: 15 to 30 USD/t on 4 September after 10 to 25 USD/t the previous month. That is CBAM differentiation, and it is invisible in the LME headline. Imports from carbon-intensive origins still carry 50 to 90 EUR/t of CBAM cost. The force majeure EGA declared in April on European billet contracts has not been updated since 26 August and remains a premium driver for as long as it stands.
