Against the spot price and with shared risk. For long-term contracts in the first half of 2027, mills in Northern Europe are asking 100 to 150 EUR/t more than in the second half of 2026; market participants consider at most half of that achievable (Fastmarkets via EUROMETAL, 3 and 6 November). The Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe stood at 764.00 EUR/t on 4 November, offers for the first quarter at 780 to 815 EUR/t ex-works. Three points help in the negotiation. First: derive the contract price from the index and negotiate the surcharge, not the absolute price. Second: separate the half-years, for example with a fixed price for the first half and indexation with a cap for the second. Third: ask for something in return for every surcharge, such as guaranteed volumes and delivery windows, as long as import quotas are exhausted and Taranto takes further capacity out. Early contracts have paid off in the past: from October 2023 to February 2024 spot prices rose by more than 120 EUR/t.

Clarify three points explicitly. First: which origins are on your supplier list, and how fast do their country quotas fill up? Fourth-quarter quotas opened on 1 October and were exhausted within days in key categories, including the Turkish hot-rolled coil quota on the first day, the hot-rolled quota for other countries, the residual cold-rolled quota and several country quotas for hot-dip galvanised (EUROMETAL, 7 October). By 22 October India and Egypt were also above their quarterly quotas, and according to Fastmarkets Turkey has overshot its annual quota by more than 100,000 t (EUROMETAL, 23 October). Second: who bears the quota risk if the allocation fills up during the contract term and the 50 percent out-of-quota duty applies? Third: since 1 October 2026 the country of melt must be declared, evidenced by a mill certificate showing country of melt and heat number (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1963); until 30 September 2027 substitute documents alone are sufficient. State in the contract which substitute documents you accept. A quota adjustment clause and weekly checks of TARIC utilisation at the start of each period, next from 1 January 2027, belong in every import contract.

In concrete terms, around 1 million t of crude steel capacity leaves the German market. ArcelorMittal will end primary steelmaking at its Duisburg site by the end of 2027, closing the steelworks and billet mill, putting roughly 550 of 800 jobs at risk and continuing the site as a rerolling operation on semi-finished material from ArcelorMittal Hamburg (1 September 2026). At the same time Moselstahlwerk in Trier, with about 560,000 t of EAF capacity, is up for international sale, while voestalpine builds a new twin electric arc furnace at Donawitz. Two things follow for procurement. First, if you buy material from the affected line, settle the transition path, the certification effort and the price effect with your supplier now, because qualifying a second source takes six to eighteen months depending on the part. Second, frame agreements running beyond 2027 need a review trigger tied to capacity changes at your supplier and to its source of semi-finished material, not only to the index.

More than a surcharge question. In early October the Kaub gauge fell to the lowest level since records began, with a daily mean of minus 4.8 cm on 1 October. Rain brought only brief relief in late October, to a daily mean of 57 cm on 28 October; from 2 to 7 November the gauge stood between 15 and 22 cm again and at 5 to 11 cm on the morning of 8 November (WSV). The gauge value is not the depth of the shipping channel, but below 78 cm vessels load considerably less and freight rises. For procurement this means: surcharges are justified, their mechanics are negotiable, i.e. a scale based on the official Kaub gauge, automatic removal above a defined level and evidence per shipment. Volume matters more: check which rail or road capacity your supplier has booked for your December volumes and who bears the extra cost of switching. For deliveries free at works, low-water risk belongs explicitly in the contract.

CBAM has been financially effective since 1 January 2026; payment starts in 2027 when certificates are purchased. The quarterly certificate price was 75.36 EUR/tCO2e for the first quarter of 2026 (Fastmarkets) and 82.32 EUR/tCO2e for the third quarter (EUROMETAL, 6 October). With EUAs around 90 EUR, the effective additional cost for high-emission steel is around 40 to 60 EUR/t, but only with verified emission values: as long as these are missing, traders report that the Commission applies country default values, and one trader calculated three times the expected 50 to 60 EUR/t for slab (EUROMETAL, 20 September). A complete import calculation includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation effort including melt-and-pour evidence, quota availability under the safeguard instrument in force since 1 July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic option after a total cost calculation.

HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.

By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.

Only if the comparison does not stop at the base price. CBAM has had a financial effect since 1 January 2026; the certificate price was 75.36 EUR/tCO2e for the first quarter of 2026 (Fastmarkets) and 82.32 EUR/tCO2e for the third quarter (EUROMETAL, 6 October). Since 1 July 2026 the new safeguard regime also applies, with a 47 percent lower duty-free quota and a 50 percent out-of-quota duty; Turkey's HRC quota was exhausted on day one at the start of both the third and the fourth quarter. Since 1 October the country of melt and pour must also be proven. A Turkish or Vietnamese offer that looks 30 to 50 EUR/t cheaper on paper can end up more expensive than European material once CBAM and quota risk are added. The alternative is robust only if CO2 intensity, quota capacity, origin evidence, lead time and a risk premium are properly reflected in the total cost calculation.

HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.