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Steel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
06.07.2026
Current steel price based on the Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe (690.94 EUR/t as of 2 July, up 9 EUR/t on day two of the new quota regime). Trend analysis on Türkiye's day-one exhaustion of its hot-rolled coil quota (category 1.A oversubscribed by 43 percent, Kallanish as of 1 July), the TRQ regime in force since 1 July (quotas down 47 percent, HRC quota 1A cut to 5.2 million tonnes, out-of-quota duty 50 percent) and the melt-and-pour requirement from 1 October. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
The current price move is not limited to hot-rolled coil. CRC Northern Europe sits at around 800 EUR/t, a premium over HRC of around 110 EUR/t and within the normal range; hot-dip galvanized (HDG) moves similarly. This points to a tightly coupled move across the European flat steel market.
AT A GLANCE
- Türkiye exhausted its Q3 hot-rolled coil quota (category 1.A) on day one of the new regime: 229,564 t filed against a 160,574 t quota, 43 percent oversubscribed (Kallanish, as of 1 July).
- The Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe jumped 9 EUR/t to 690.94 EUR/t ex-works on 2 July; several European suppliers withdrew offers after the 30 June country-quota publication.
- Since 1 July: duty-free quotas down 47 percent, the HRC quota (1A) cut to 5.2 million tonnes, out-of-quota duty 50 percent, melt-and-pour evidence from 1 October.
- Close H2 contracts now with an index clause and a TRQ clause; weak end-customer demand remains the counterweight to mill demands.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The first stress test of the new import regime came faster than expected. Based on Kallanish calculations using TARIC data, Türkiye fully exhausted its Q3 quota for hot-rolled coil (category 1.A) on 1 July, the first day of application: 229,564 tonnes awaited allocation against a quota of 160,574 tonnes, an oversubscription of 43 percent. The quota for metallic coated sheets (4.A) is also oversubscribed, by 10 percent. Anyone booking Turkish coil now pays a real 50 percent duty or waits for the fourth quarter.
The spot market is responding. The Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe jumped by a good 9 EUR/t to 690.94 EUR/t ex-works on 2 July, from 681.88 EUR/t the day before. Several European suppliers had withdrawn their offers after the country-quota publication of 30 June. Mills are testing how much of the new tightness they can push through.
The rules themselves have been final since 24 June: Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 cuts duty-free quotas by around 47 percent, the HRC-specific quota (category 1A) falls to 5.2 million tonnes from 7.7 million tonnes, the out-of-quota duty stands at 50 percent, and the melt-and-pour evidence requirement applies from 1 October.
The counterweight remains end-customer demand. Call-off volumes from automotive and construction are low, and service centres report stocks lasting into September and October. Offers from integrated mills for July delivery were last heard at 695 to 715 EUR/t ex-works, with real deals below that. The definitive anti-dumping duties on coil from Egypt, Japan and Vietnam plus the ongoing CRC case narrow the alternatives further.
What we watch: quota utilisation of further origin countries in the first weeks of July. Every country quota that fills takes import volume out of the market short term and shifts negotiating power towards European mills.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Check immediately which of your import sources are affected by the day-one exhaustion. Turkish hot-rolled coil and category 4.A material are effectively dutiable for Q3; recalculate existing orders with the 50 percent duty or contractually shift delivery into the fourth quarter. Turkish cold-rolled coil remains open: 89 percent of the quota is still available.
Close H2 contracts on HRC, CRC and HDG now, before mills fully price in the quota effect. The anchor remains an index clause on the Fastmarkets monthly average with a cap-and-floor band of plus 8 to minus 10 percent. The 2 July jump shows how fast the level can now move.
Require melt-and-pour documentation as a contract annex starting now. Suppliers who cannot provide the melt evidence from October drop out as a source, regardless of price. The remaining three months are the requalification window, not a buffer.
Use weak end-customer demand as the counterweight. As long as service centres are stocked into autumn, the 695 to 715 EUR/t ex-works offers and the mills' H2 demands are a negotiating point, not a fact.
Steel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Range over the next four to six weeks, drifting higher. (1) Türkiye's day-one quota exhaustion tightens import supply immediately, (2) the 50 percent out-of-quota duty makes over-quota material uneconomical, (3) weak car and construction demand caps mill increases. At 690.94 EUR/t on 2 July the index sits at the top of the June range.
Risk Scenario
More country quotas fill during July, mills partly push through their 750 EUR/t delivered offers, and restocking starts ahead of the October melt-and-pour deadline. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Since January 2026, importers must acquire CBAM certificates reflecting the CO2 footprint of production. Costs depend on the country of origin, actual emission intensity, and the current EU ETS price. A complete import calculation now needs to include CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability under the new safeguard instrument from July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after full cost accounting.
HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.
By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.
Since January 2026, importers must purchase CBAM certificates, and the new safeguard instrument from July 2026 adds further costs. A full landed-cost calculation that includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability, and transit risk is essential. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after total cost comparison.
HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.
