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Steel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
03.08.2026
Current steel price based on the Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe (711.25 EUR/t as of 30 July, up 28.12 EUR/t on end-June). Trend analysis on full mill order books (August sold out, September half sold), the low Rhine water with throttled hot metal output at thyssenkrupp, the European Commission's consultation on an extended product scope of the safeguard regulation, and the persistent cold-rolled squeeze. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
The price move is not limited to hot-rolled coil. CRC Northern Europe holds at 800 to 820 EUR/t ex-works (print of 15 July), around 100 EUR/t above HRC; in Italy the differential widened to 115 EUR/t by 22 July. The tightness continues to sit in downstream products.
AT A GLANCE
- The Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe stands at 711.25 EUR/t ex-works on 30 July, up 28.12 EUR/t on end-June; mills have sold out August and half of September, with limited volumes left for October (Fastmarkets, 31 July).
- Offers sit at 715 to 740 EUR/t, tradeable levels at 710 to 725 EUR/t; mills reject bids of 700 to 710 EUR/t given limited availability.
- The low Rhine water reaches steel production: thyssenkrupp is throttling hot metal output in Duisburg, its own push-barge fleet is idle (Kaub level 55 cm on 17 July; S&P Global, 24 July).
- The European Commission launches a consultation on 31 July to extend the product scope of the safeguard regulation; the melt-and-pour requirement from 1 October remains the hardest deadline of the quarter. CRC holds at 800 to 820 EUR/t, around 100 EUR/t above HRC.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
Two stories frame the last two weeks: mills head into the summer break with full order books, and the Rhine is running out of water. The Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe rose to 711.25 EUR/t ex-works by 30 July, up 28.12 EUR/t on end-June. August is sold out at most mills, September half sold, with limited volumes left for October (Fastmarkets, 31 July). One German buyer put it plainly: mills now quote according to the state of their order book, not according to the market.
The demands are not pushed through yet. Offers sit at 715 to 740 EUR/t, tradeable levels at 710 to 725 EUR/t, and mills reject bids of 700 to 710 EUR/t. The 740 to 750 EUR/t announced in July remains an ask, but the gap between ask and deal has narrowed. In Italy the index slipped to 706.25 EUR/t on 30 July; on the import side, Egypt (730 USD/t CFR including around 30 USD/t of CBAM costs), India (645 to 655 USD/t CFR, equivalent to 565 to 575 EUR/t) and Türkiye (590 EUR/t CFR including anti-dumping duty) were on offer.
The second story is physical: the low Rhine water is reaching steel production. At the Kaub gauge, the navigable depth dropped to around 55 cm on 17 July; thyssenkrupp has taken its own push-barge fleet out of service, runs the raw-material supply of its Duisburg site with chartered shallow-draft vessels and has adjusted hot metal output (S&P Global, 24 July). Customer supply is considered secure, but freight costs are rising and parts of the logistics are moving to road. For mills this is an argument against lower bids, not a trigger for broad shortages.
On the regulatory side, the Commission launched a consultation on 31 July to extend the product scope of the steel safeguard regulation. In parallel, the Spanish producers' association UNESID warns that an incorrect tariff classification can make a difference of around 300 EUR/t in CBAM liability. Both point the same way: the rulebook around steel imports is getting tighter and more error-prone at the same time.
In downstream products the squeeze persists: cold-rolled coil in Northern Europe held at 800 to 820 EUR/t in the last print of 15 July, around 100 EUR/t above HRC; in Italy the differential widened to 115 EUR/t by 22 July. In long products, pre-shutdown buying supports the market: rebar Northern Europe holds unchanged at 710 to 730 EUR/t delivered (29 July), with traders describing last-minute stocking ahead of the two-to-three-week August closures.
What we watch: the first real August deals, the path of the Rhine levels, and the quota reset on 1 October, which coincides with the start of the melt-and-pour requirement.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Keep negotiating against deals, not against announcements, but prepare for more seller-friendly conditions. The index stands at 711 EUR/t, real bookings run at 710 to 725 EUR/t, and the mills' 740 to 750 EUR/t is not yet the market. Sold-out August and September volumes mean, however: anyone with Q4 needs should secure production windows now rather than wait for a price dip after the summer break. The anchor remains the Fastmarkets monthly average with a cap-and-floor band.
Treat the Rhine risk as its own contract position. Rising freight costs and the shift to road will arrive as surcharges; accept logistics surcharges only shown separately, with an expiry date and a reference to a verifiable benchmark such as the Kaub gauge or a freight index, not as a permanent increase in the base price. For delivered contracts, check who carries the low-water risk.
Keep treating cold-rolled coil as its own bottleneck product. The premium of around 100 EUR/t over HRC is holding, in Italy it is widening, and nothing has changed about the drivers (scarce European rolling capacity, anti-dumping, CBAM). Contract CRC needs earlier than HRC needs.
The melt-and-pour requirement from 1 October remains the hardest deadline of the quarter, and it coincides with the quota reset. Require the melt evidence as a contract annex starting now, assign the quota risk for Q4 deliveries explicitly, and review the tariff classification of your import positions: UNESID's point about a possible CBAM difference of around 300 EUR/t depending on classification is a review order for every import calculation.
Steel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) Mill order books are full for August and half full for September, so mills concede nothing in thin summer trading, (2) buyers are stocked into autumn and so far reject the demanded 740 to 750 EUR/t, with real bookings at 710 to 725 EUR/t, (3) the import window stays narrow through quotas, CBAM and anti-dumping. The low Rhine water supports the price floor as long as mills' raw-material logistics remain constrained.
Risk Scenario
Restocking ahead of the melt-and-pour requirement on 1 October coincides with the quota reset for the fourth quarter, the low Rhine forces further mills into production cuts, and mills push through their demanded 740 to 750 EUR/t in a tightened market. If the cold-rolled shortage additionally pulls the flat-steel complex higher, the upper end of the range is reachable. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Primarily a cost and negotiation issue, not yet a supply crisis. At the Kaub gauge the navigable depth dropped to around 55 cm in mid-July; thyssenkrupp took its own push-barge fleet out of service and adjusted hot metal output in Duisburg, while customer supply is considered secure (S&P Global, 24 July). Barges sail partially loaded, freight shifts to road, and both make logistics more expensive. For procurement this means: accept logistics surcharges only shown separately, with an expiry date and a reference to a verifiable benchmark, and for delivered contracts clarify who carries the low-water risk. Only if production cuts spread beyond individual sites does the logistics issue become a volume issue.
Since January 2026, importers must acquire CBAM certificates reflecting the CO2 footprint of production. Costs depend on the country of origin, actual emission intensity, and the current EU ETS price. A complete import calculation now needs to include CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability under the new safeguard instrument from July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after full cost accounting.
HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.
By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.
Since January 2026, importers must purchase CBAM certificates, and the new safeguard instrument from July 2026 adds further costs. A full landed-cost calculation that includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability, and transit risk is essential. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after total cost comparison.
HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.
