COMMODITY PRICES
Steel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
11.05.2026
Current European steel price based on Fastmarkets HRC index Northwest Europe (early May around 670 EUR/t, ArcelorMittal May offer 750 EUR/t). Trend analysis on the new EU tariff-rate-quota regime from 1 July 2026 (47 percent quota cut to 18.3 million tonnes, out-of-quota duty to 50 percent), the melt-and-pour documentation requirement from 1 October, the CBAM levy phase from 1 January, and US Section 232 at 50 percent since 6 April. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
The current price movement is not limited to hot-rolled coil. Cold-rolled and coated flat steels are also trending higher. This points to a broader upward trend in the European flat steel market.
AT A GLANCE
- HRC Northwest Europe around 670 EUR/t per Fastmarkets in early May, ArcelorMittal May offer at 750 EUR/t. Set the anchor with an index clause now, before the regime switch on 1 July.
- The EU safeguard ends on 30 June, replaced by a tighter tariff-rate-quota regime. Quotas drop by 47 percent to 18.3 million tonnes per year, out-of-quota duty doubles to 50 percent.
- EUROFER Q1 data show weaker demand than May mill lists imply. ArcelorMittal has paused its planned EAF/DRI investment project.
- Melt-and-pour documentation requirement for importers from 1 October 2026. Audit supply-chain compliance now: risk sits with the buyer, not the supplier.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
ArcelorMittal lifted its May offer to 750 EUR/t delivered Northwest Europe, up 50 EUR/t from the April level of 700 EUR/t. The Fastmarkets steel HRC index, domestic, ex-works Northwest Europe averaged 652.74 EUR/t in April and is trading around 670 EUR/t in early May. Italian integrated producers are aiming for 720 EUR/t on May-delivery coil, with service-centre quotes below that. The widening spread between mill list prices and the real market reflects what EUROFER Q1 data show: European steel demand is softer than May offers imply.
The dominant driver for the next eight weeks is the expiry of the current EU steel safeguard on 30 June and its replacement by a new tariff-rate-quota regime from 1 July. Despite the word sunset, the replacement is a tightening, not a liberalisation. Quota-free import volumes drop by around 47 percent from 2024 levels to roughly 18.3 million tonnes per year, and the out-of-quota duty doubles from 25 to 50 percent. EUROFER described the package as a lifeline for the European steel industry, and ArcelorMittal Europe CEO Gert Van Poelwoerde has pushed for swift implementation. From 1 October 2026, importers will also face a melt-and-pour origin documentation requirement, and within two years the Commission will review whether melt-and-pour becomes the basis of quota allocation.
The transatlantic situation adds pressure. US Section 232 tariffs of 50 percent on raw steel and 25 percent on derivatives have been in force since 6 April 2026, with a reduced 10 percent rate for products where at least 95 percent of the steel, aluminium and copper content is US-origin. European mills that previously sold into the US are now seeking domestic outlets, which tightens the supply backdrop ahead of the TRQ switchover. CBAM has been in its levy phase since 1 January 2026, with embedded CO2 emissions on 2026 imports billed through certificate surrenders starting September 2027.
On the supply side, ArcelorMittal has paused its planned EAF/DRI investment project, signalling that the green transformation is not cashflowable at current margins without policy backstopping. Importers from Türkiye, India and Vietnam, who fully used the current safeguard quota system, are positioning for the final weeks before the TRQ switch and are sending cheaper offers through end-June, because from 1 July their volumes will face either tighter quotas or the 50 percent out-of-quota duty. This creates a short window of import-versus-mill-list spread in May and June that will close abruptly after the switch.
For the next four to eight weeks we expect HRC Northwest Europe in a 670 to 730 EUR/t band with upward pressure driven by the closing of the import-price gap. Mill list prices will continue to be communicated aggressively, the real market sits a step below, and the convergence path points up, not down.
What does this mean for European procurement?
If you are negotiating a 12-month anchor on HRC, CRC, HDG or sections, close this week with an index clause on the Fastmarkets monthly average, with a cap-and-floor band of plus 8 to minus 12 percent and an explicit transition clause for the 1 July regime switch. Demand that the clause names the mechanism: does it automatically apply an adjusted quota allocation at switchover, or does it trigger a full reset? Without this in writing now, you negotiate under pressure in July.
Separate the CBAM component from the headline price. Demand a quarterly adjustment to the EU ETS auction clearing prices, since those drive the quarterly CBAM certificate prices. Mills that fold CBAM into a flat price communicate less transparently than mills that break it out. Breaking it out is the minimum negotiation standard from Q3 onwards.
Audit third-country imports actively against the melt-and-pour documentation requirement that takes effect on 1 October 2026. Suppliers from Türkiye, India and Vietnam who use cold-mill finishing in third countries may fall out of the quota framework. Compliance risk lands with the buyer, not the supplier.
Build a cash-and-carry reserve for the weeks of 15 June to 15 July. Importers will send cheap offers through end-June because their volumes face tighter quotas or the 50 percent out-of-quota duty from 1 July. A tactical tranche in that window locks in the lower band. Conditions: a trusted supplier and clean supply-chain documentation that satisfies the October melt-and-pour requirement.
For sheet steel buyers in parallel: CRC and HDG follow HRC with a two to three week lag and higher add-ons. Expect CRC at 760 to 790 EUR/t and HDG at 790 to 830 EUR/t. Demand that service centres break out the HRC component and the cut-to-length and processing surcharge separately. Flat prices make negotiation harder during a phase when the HRC base is rising.
Tacto Intelligence connects your ERP data with over 20,000 commodity and market indices — including steel, cold-rolled, galvanized, energy, and freight. Identify in real time which categories in your portfolio are affected by current market movements.
>20,000
Price indices integrated
75%
less preparation effort
>5,000
Price increases deflected with the Defender Agent
Steel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
For the next four to eight weeks we expect HRC Northwest Europe in a 670 to 730 EUR/t band. (1) Mill list prices continue to lift through May and June, ArcelorMittal anchors at 750 EUR/t. (2) Third-country importers send cheaper offers through 30 June, keeping the spread open. (3) EUROFER Q1 data point to softer demand than mill lists imply. (4) The convergence path turns up with the 1 July switchover, not down.
Risk Scenario
In the risk scenario HRC Northwest Europe runs to 730 to 800 EUR/t. (1) The successor regime from 1 July is interpreted more strictly than the Council mandate suggests, with less transition flexibility. (2) US Section 232 tariffs keep European volumes in the domestic market and lift mill utilisation. (3) EUROFER's call for anti-dumping action against Indian and Vietnamese suppliers gains political traction. (4) ArcelorMittal uses the EAF pause as leverage for firmer mill lists. Probability over eight weeks: 30 to 35 percent.
Related Commodity Prices
Related Procurement Glossary Topics
Frequently Asked Questions
Since January 2026, importers must acquire CBAM certificates reflecting the CO2 footprint of production. Costs depend on the country of origin, actual emission intensity, and the current EU ETS price. A complete import calculation now needs to include CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability under the new safeguard instrument from July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after full cost accounting.
HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.
By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.
Since January 2026, importers must purchase CBAM certificates, and the new safeguard instrument from July 2026 adds further costs. A full landed-cost calculation that includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability, and transit risk is essential. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after total cost comparison.
HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.
