Settle three points explicitly. First, which origins are on your supplier list, and how full are their country quotas? For the current period to 30 September 2026, EUROMETAL reported utilisation of up to 99.9 percent on 13 September, including hot-rolled coil from India at 98.0 percent, Egyptian rebar at 99.8 percent and Swiss wire rod at 99.6 percent; the reset for the fourth quarter takes effect on 1 October and opens fresh country quotas. Second, who carries the quota risk if the allocation fills during the term and the 50 percent out-of-quota duty applies? Third, the melt-and-pour rule applies from 1 October 2026. The Commission clarified the evidence rules on 28 and 31 August: a mill test certificate stating the country of melt and pour and the heat number is required, with a one-year transition to 30 September 2027 during which substitute documents remain acceptable. Name in the contract which substitute documents you will accept, rather than relying on a mill test certificate your upstream supplier may not be able to produce. A quota adjustment clause plus continuous monitoring of TARIC utilisation belongs in every import contract.

In concrete terms, around 1 million t of crude steel capacity leaves the German market. ArcelorMittal will end primary steelmaking at its Duisburg site by the end of 2027, closing the steelworks and billet mill, putting roughly 550 of 800 jobs at risk and continuing the site as a rerolling operation on semi-finished material from ArcelorMittal Hamburg (1 September 2026). At the same time Moselstahlwerk in Trier, with about 560,000 t of EAF capacity, is up for international sale, while voestalpine builds a new twin electric arc furnace at Donawitz. Two things follow for procurement. First, if you buy material from the affected line, settle the transition path, the certification effort and the price effect with your supplier now, because qualifying a second source takes six to eighteen months depending on the part. Second, frame agreements running beyond 2027 need a review trigger tied to capacity changes at your supplier and to its source of semi-finished material, not only to the index.

Differently from the end of August. The gauge recovery has been fully reversed: Kaub stood at 21 cm on 11 and 12 September and 25 cm on 13 September, the official four-day forecast runs between 21 and 31 cm, and the 14-day forecast from the Federal Institute of Hydrology puts the probability of staying below the 77 cm equivalent water level at 100 percent for every day through 26 September. Partial loading and low-water surcharges will therefore accompany the entire October contracting cycle. For procurement that means less debate of principle and more mechanism: tie the surcharge to the official Kaub gauge, band it, agree automatic expiry above a defined level, and require evidence per shipment rather than a flat monthly line item. For delivered contracts, clarify who carries the low-water risk. If you have rail or road alternatives, price them now, while capacity is still negotiable. The clustering of low-water periods argues in any case for permanently backing Rhine-dependent supply chains with alternative routes.

Since January 2026, importers must acquire CBAM certificates reflecting the CO2 footprint of production. Costs depend on the country of origin, actual emission intensity, and the current EU ETS price. A complete import calculation now needs to include CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability under the new safeguard instrument from July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after full cost accounting.

HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.

By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.

Since January 2026, importers must purchase CBAM certificates, and the new safeguard instrument from July 2026 adds further costs. A full landed-cost calculation that includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability, and transit risk is essential. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after total cost comparison.

HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.