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Steel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
22.06.2026
Current steel price based on the Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe (686.50 EUR/t as of 18 June, easing slightly from 691 EUR/t at end of May). Trend analysis on the EU Council's formal adoption of the steel safeguard regulation on 8 June, the TRQ regime from 1 July (quota cut 47 percent to 18.3 Mt, out-of-quota duty 50 percent), the melt-and-pour requirement from 1 October, and the definitive HRC anti-dumping duties on Egypt, Japan and Vietnam. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
The current price move is not limited to hot-rolled coil. CRC Northern Europe sits at around 800 EUR/t, a premium over HRC of around 110 EUR/t and within the normal range; hot-dip galvanized (HDG) moves similarly. This points to a tightly coupled move across the European flat steel market.
AT A GLANCE
- EU Council gives final adoption to the steel safeguard regulation on 8 June; Official Journal publication pending, applies from 1 July.
- HRC Northern Europe at 686.50 EUR/t ex-works as of 18 June (Fastmarkets), around 2 EUR/t below the prior month; the market held back ahead of the safeguard details.
- From 1 July: duty-free quotas down 47 percent to 18.3 million tonnes, out-of-quota duty 50 percent, melt-and-pour evidence from 1 October.
- Close H2 contracts now with an index anchor and a TRQ transition clause; require melt-and-pour documentation as a contract annex.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
On 8 June 2026 the EU Council formally adopted the new steel safeguard regulation, completing the final step of the legislative process. After the Parliament vote of 19 May, the text is now final. It will be published in the Official Journal and applies from 1 July: duty-free quotas fall by around 47 percent to 18.3 million tonnes, the out-of-quota duty rises to 50 percent, and from 1 October the melt-and-pour evidence requirement applies.
The spot market stayed quiet. The Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe stands at 686.50 EUR/t ex-works as of 18 June, around 2 EUR/t below the prior month and slightly below the 691 EUR/t of end-May. EUROMETAL reports that buyers and mills held back new deals while the detailed rules of the new regime were not yet final.
End-customer demand remains the brake. Weak car output and subdued construction keep call-off volumes low, so mills cannot yet push their higher H2 contract offers through the market.
On the import side, the bundle of the new safeguard, the definitive anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil from Egypt, Japan and Vietnam, and the ongoing CRC case against imports from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam work together. They visibly narrow sourcing options for the second half.
What we watch: the Official Journal publication with the country-by-country quota allocation and the melt-and-pour transition rules. It turns the political decision into the operationally binding basis for sourcing.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
For 12-month anchors on HRC, CRC, HDG or sections, close this week with an index clause on the Fastmarkets monthly average, a cap-and-floor band of plus 8 to minus 10 percent, and a transition clause for the 1 July TRQ switch. The regulation is final; the timing is no longer open.
Secure the last import tranche under the old quota regime, but require the melt-and-pour documentation as a contract annex. Suppliers who cannot provide the melt evidence from October drop out as a source, regardless of price.
Start qualifying alternative suppliers now, not in September. The quota allocation in the Official Journal changes the usable supplier list, and requalification lead time is longer than the window to October.
Use the weak end-customer demand as a counterweight to the higher contract offers. As long as call-off volumes stay low, the mills' 50 to 120 EUR/t premium over spot is a negotiating point, not a fact.
Steel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Index sideways around 686 EUR/t. The final safeguard regulation (Council 8 June, applies 1 July) supports the floor through (1) the quota cut of 47 percent to 18.3 Mt, (2) the 50 percent out-of-quota duty and (3) the melt-and-pour requirement from October. Weak car and construction demand caps mill increases.
Risk Scenario
A fast Official Journal publication with a tight quota allocation, the definitive HRC anti-dumping duties plus the parallel CRC case, US Section 232 at 50 percent and post-summer restocking coincide. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Since January 2026, importers must acquire CBAM certificates reflecting the CO2 footprint of production. Costs depend on the country of origin, actual emission intensity, and the current EU ETS price. A complete import calculation now needs to include CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability under the new safeguard instrument from July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after full cost accounting.
HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.
By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.
Since January 2026, importers must purchase CBAM certificates, and the new safeguard instrument from July 2026 adds further costs. A full landed-cost calculation that includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability, and transit risk is essential. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after total cost comparison.
HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.
