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Nickel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
12.10.2026
Current nickel price on an LME cash basis (15,545.00 USD/t as of 9 October; new year's low of 15,415.00 USD/t on 8 October). Trend analysis on Indonesia's planned halt to new nickel pig iron plants, LME stocks that have stopped rising, the lower alloy surcharge for October and this week's INSG meeting. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- Indonesia is considering a moratorium on new plants producing nickel pig iron and ferronickel. On 7 October minister Bahlil Lahadalia cited the country's own oversupply and the fallen price as the reason (Reuters). It signals a policy floor, not yet a decision.
- LME nickel cash falls to a new year's low of 15,415.00 USD/t on 8 October and closes at 15,545.00 USD/t on 9 October, 6.8 percent below 9 September.
- LME stocks have stopped rising: 285,168 t on 2 October, 282,864 t on 9 October. The share of cancelled warrants rose to 10.2 percent in the week to 2 October (LME).
- Aperam cut the official alloy surcharge for 1.4301 by 43 EUR/t to 2,176 EUR/t for October. The October LME nickel average so far is 4.9 percent below September: ask for a further lower surcharge for November.
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
Indonesia is responding to the price slide. On 7 October Bahlil Lahadalia, newly appointed coordinating minister for downstreaming and energy transition, said the government is considering a moratorium on new plants producing semi-processed nickel such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel. The aim is to support the price; he attributed the decline to oversupply from Indonesia. Control through ore mining quotas remains in place (Reuters). No decision has been taken yet, and a moratorium on new plants works over years, not weeks.
The market has not reacted so far. LME nickel cash fell to 15,415.00 USD/t on 8 October, the low of the year, and closed at 15,545.00 USD/t on 9 October, 6.8 percent below 9 September and around 20 percent below the May high. In the week from 28 September to 2 October nickel lost 4.3 percent according to the LME weekly review, with every close below the previous day. The review cites a firm dollar, higher bond yields and China's holiday week as weights; the cuts in Indonesia had provided no lasting support.
Stocks show signs of turning. LME stocks reached 285,168 t on 2 October and eased to 282,864 t by 9 October. More important is the share of cancelled warrants, which rose from 6.1 to 10.2 percent in the week to 2 October (LME). Cancelled warrants indicate metal booked for delivery that will leave the warehouses in the coming weeks. The curve is still in a contango of 175 USD/t, so the market remains well supplied in the short term.
In Indonesia the drought remains the second factor. The IMIP industrial park in Morowali confirmed nickel pig iron output cuts due to water shortages on 22 September; Bloomberg estimated the affected volume at around 100,000 t. There is no newer information on the scale. For stainless steel in Europe the falling nickel price is already feeding through: Aperam cut the official alloy surcharge for 1.4301 to 2,176 EUR/t for October, 43 EUR/t below September. The October LME nickel average to 9 October, at 15,515.71 USD/t, is 4.9 percent below the September average.
The International Nickel Study Group meets in Lisbon this week. Its current forecast from spring 2026 shows a deficit of 32,000 t for 2026. What we are watching: whether INSG revises the balance for 2026 and 2027, whether Jakarta adopts the moratorium, and whether the cancelled warrants lead to a real stock decline at the LME.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Ask for a further lower alloy surcharge for November. Aperam's October surcharge fell by 43 EUR/t, and the October LME nickel average is so far 4.9 percent below September. Check your stainless steel supplier's November surcharge against the mill's published mechanism, which will be available at the end of October. An unchanged surcharge needs an explanation in this situation.
Use the year's low for partial volumes, not for the full term. With the planned moratorium Jakarta signals that it will not accept lower prices, and the rising share of cancelled warrants may reduce LME stocks in the coming weeks. If you have requirements for 2027, hedge part of them at the current level now and run the rest through an index clause on monthly averages.
Separate metal, surcharge and processing. If a supplier justifies an increase with energy, freight or the Iran conflict, it has to show which part sits in the surcharge and which in processing. Where nickel itself is getting cheaper, only the processing part can be justified.
Name adjustment triggers that can be checked: the direction of LME stocks, published INSG balances, a decision on the moratorium in Indonesia and confirmed production cuts. Also clarify what share of your supplier's nickel units comes from Indonesian nickel pig iron or ferronickel; a moratorium or continued drought cuts hit these feedstocks first.
Nickel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Within this range over the next four to six weeks. (1) Cash set a new year's low of 15,415.00 USD/t on 8 October, and the October average so far is 15,515.71 USD/t, (2) LME stocks around 283,000 t and a contango of 175 USD/t show a well-supplied market, (3) the planned moratorium in Indonesia and a rising share of cancelled warrants limit the downside, (4) weak stainless steel demand in Europe provides no upward impulse.
Risk Scenario
INSG reports a significantly larger deficit for 2026 or 2027 this week, Jakarta adopts the moratorium or tight ore quotas for 2027, and the cancelled warrants lead to a noticeable drawdown of LME stocks. A sustained stock decline would be the confirming signal. Probability around 25 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
The current forecast of the International Nickel Study Group from spring 2026 shows a global deficit of 32,000 t for 2026: primary production 3.715 million t, usage 3.747 million t. INSG meets in Lisbon in the week of 12 October 2026; this is the first opportunity for a revision and for a first forecast for 2027. The drought in Indonesia and the planned moratorium on new plants point to a larger deficit, LME stocks of around 283,000 t point the other way. For contract design this means: the year's low of 15,415 USD/t is not a floor you should rely on for the long term, and assuming a fixed ceiling is just as untenable. Contracts should name Indonesian production cuts, policy decisions in Jakarta and the direction of LME stocks as explicit adjustment triggers.
Wherever suppliers want to pass on a rising nickel price directly and in full even though European stainless demand remains subdued and the LME is falling. Outokumpu earned an adjusted EUR 17 million in its European business in the second quarter of 2026 and expects volumes up to 10 percent lower in the third quarter on rising costs and Middle East uncertainty (2 September); it names scrap, freight and fuel as the real cost drivers alongside the metal. Separating surcharge, base material, processing and energy components shows which part of a demand hangs on the LME and which does not, and creates negotiating leverage exactly there.
More than the price currently shows, and it now comes from two directions. First, the weather: the IMIP industrial park in Morowali is cutting nickel pig iron output because of an El Niño-driven drought, affecting around 100,000 t according to Bloomberg; IMIP confirmed the cuts to Reuters without giving figures (22 September). Second, policy: on 7 October minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the government is considering a moratorium on new plants producing nickel pig iron and ferronickel to support the price; control through ore quotas remains (Reuters). The lower ore benchmark works against the upward pressure: the HPM reference price for low-grade ore was cut with effect from 12 September, which almost halves ore costs for HPAL plants by Bloomberg's calculation (16 September). With around 60 percent of world output, Indonesia remains where the nickel price is decided. The price is falling despite the cuts because LME stocks are high; once they decline, the upside risk will quickly become visible.
When the actual nickel content, the contractual surcharge mechanism and the current market environment fit together. In early October 2026 the environment clearly favours buyers: LME nickel cash fell to 15,415.00 USD/t on 8 October, the lowest close of the year, LME stocks are around 283,000 t, and the curve is in a contango of 175 USD/t. The October average so far is 4.9 percent below the September average. Passing on the full LME price in the alloy surcharge is hard to justify in this situation, a rising November surcharge even more so. The surcharge becomes robust when you can check it against a published value, such as Aperam's official European alloy surcharge, which stood at 2,176 EUR/t for 1.4301 in October, 43 EUR/t below September. Make the mill's monthly surcharge mechanism, with publication date and calculation basis, part of the contract and ask for material, processing and energy to be shown separately.
