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Nickel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
11.05.2026
Current European nickel reference based on LME 3-month settlement, with trend analysis on the INSG 32,000 t deficit forecast for 2026 (first since 2021, revised from an earlier 261,000 t surplus projection), the 30 percent cut in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB ore quota to 260 to 270 million tonnes, the Weda Bay care-and-maintenance announcement, and weak European stainless demand. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
For many procurement teams, nickel acts indirectly through stainless steel, alloy surcharges and specialty materials. The LME price is therefore relevant, but never the full pricing logic.
AT A GLANCE
- LME nickel 3-month around 18,892 USD/t as of 8 May, up 12.7 percent in the month. The market now takes the INSG deficit view seriously.
- INSG has revised its 2026 balance from a previous 261,000 t surplus to a 32,000 t deficit. This is the first structural nickel deficit since 2021.
- Indonesia's 2026 RKAB ore quota at 260 to 270 million tonnes, a cut of roughly 30 percent from the 379 million tonnes set for 2025. Weda Bay enters care and maintenance from May 2026.
- The Hormuz situation does not transmit directly, since nickel supply chains barely run through the Gulf. Indirect effect via European stainless steel production costs.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
LME nickel 3-month trades around 18,892 USD/t as of 8 May, up 12.7 percent over the month and at the highest level since March 2024. The market has priced in the INSG deficit view for 2026 over the last four weeks, after the study group dramatically revised its outlook.
The International Nickel Study Group reversed its 2026 balance in the April press release from a previous 261,000 tonne surplus to a 32,000 tonne deficit. This is the first structural nickel deficit since 2021. The drivers are Indonesian quota cuts, stronger-than-expected stainless steel demand, and isolated mine announcements such as the Weda Bay care-and-maintenance notice. INSG estimates global primary nickel production for 2026 at 3.715 million tonnes against consumption of 3.747 million tonnes. The prior year 2025 still showed a 283,000 tonne surplus.
Indonesia, the largest producer, has set the 2026 RKAB ore quota at 260 to 270 million tonnes, a roughly 30 percent drop from the 379 million tonnes set for 2025. Quota discipline acts directly on the Pacific nickel pig iron market and therefore on Class 2 supply for stainless. On the Class 1 side, battery demand draws volume out of LME stocks.
For European industrial buyers, this is a substantial shift. Nickel was previously one of the few quiet anchors in the material complex with low volatility. With the revision to a deficit view, sentiment is turning. Hormuz and the Iran conflict barely transmit directly because nickel supply chains, outside Asian routes, do not run through the Gulf. The indirect effect through European stainless production costs remains.
For the next four to eight weeks we expect LME nickel in an 18,200 to 20,500 USD/t band. The deficit consensus supports the upside, while ING (2026 annual average 15,250 USD/t) and Goldman Sachs (17,200 USD/t) remain more conservative.
What does this mean for European procurement?
The quiet nickel phase is over. For 12-month contracts on stainless steel and alloy-intensive products, an LME nickel monthly-average clause with a cap-and-floor band of plus 12 to minus 8 percent is now the clean negotiation basis. The old plus-minus 10 percent band is too tight for the new deficit environment.
For stainless steel contracts, separate LME nickel, alloy surcharge (LZ) and energy pass-through formally. Mills usually break out the alloy surcharge, but energy components are often folded into the headline price. A separate energy clause pegged to the EEX baseload cal average is the clean solution.
For Class 1 nickel (battery-grade), a different logic applies. The deficit story hits twice here because Class 1 availability from Indonesian production is already constrained. For battery material contracts, peg to a Class 1 sub-index where available, rather than the general LME 3-month. Suppliers that previously argued from a quiet surplus will reprice noticeably.
For stainless steel construction, audit the substrate competition calculation actively against aluminium and low-carbon steel grades. At the current LME level the economics shift in favour of coated steel or aluminium with CBAM premiums, particularly for non-corrosive applications.
For the next two weeks watch the next INSG monthly data, Q2 statistics from Indonesia on actual ore production, and Reuters and Bloomberg updates on the Weda Bay restart. Both move LME nickel more than the Hormuz news flow.
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Nickel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
For the next four to eight weeks we expect LME nickel in an 18,200 to 20,500 USD/t band. (1) The INSG 32,000 t 2026 deficit is now priced in. (2) Indonesian quota discipline keeps Class 2 supply tight. (3) Weda Bay care and maintenance from May removes volume. (4) Hormuz does not transmit directly, only indirectly via European stainless production costs.
Risk Scenario
In the risk scenario LME nickel runs to 20,500 to 23,000 USD/t. (1) Indonesia tightens the RKAB quota further in the summer update. (2) Additional mine care-and-maintenance announcements follow. (3) Class 1 demand for batteries firms more than expected. (4) Chinese stimulus underpins stainless production. Probability over eight weeks: 25 to 30 percent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Wherever suppliers pass through a rising nickel price directly and fully, even though inventories are high and the market remains fundamentally in surplus. Separating surcharges, base material costs, and other cost components creates negotiation leverage.
More than from any other single source. The production cuts at Weda Bay and at the national level demonstrate that Indonesia can actively manage supply. This is currently the central upside risk for nickel prices.
Only when the LME nickel price actually rises significantly and sustainably. With inventories elevated and the market in fundamental surplus, blanket surcharge demands deserve scrutiny. A clean separation of base material cost and processing charges is essential.
