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Nickel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
06.07.2026
Current nickel price on an LME cash basis (16,115 USD/t as of 3 July, the lowest level since the start of the year). Trend analysis on reports that Indonesia could raise its 2026 RKAB quota to around 360 million wmt at the end-July ministry review, record combined LME and ShFE stocks (around 469,000 t), weak stainless and battery demand, and the still-valid INSG deficit (32,000 t for 2026). Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
Price History
For many procurement teams, nickel acts indirectly through stainless steel, alloy surcharges and specialty materials. The LME price is therefore relevant, but never the full pricing logic.
AT A GLANCE
- LME nickel cash at 16,115 USD/t as of 3 July, down 14.3 percent from early June and the lowest level since the start of the year.
- Driver of the second leg down: reports that Indonesia could raise the national 2026 RKAB quota to around 360 million wmt at the end-July ministry review (from 270 million).
- Combined LME and ShFE stocks at a record of around 469,000 t; battery demand weaker as manufacturers shift to nickel-free chemistries.
- Nickel surcharges are falling noticeably: the window for spot purchases and larger contract volumes in stainless is open.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
Nickel has been through a second leg down. LME cash stands at 16,115 USD/t as of 3 July, down 14.3 percent from early June and the lowest level since the start of the year. The trigger is a reversal in expectations: after Indonesia's quota cuts carried the market in spring, reports are mounting that Jakarta could raise the national 2026 RKAB quota to around 360 million wmt at the regular ministry review at the end of July, from currently 270 million. The market is pricing the easing before it is decided.
Inventories offer no support: combined LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks reached a record of around 468,600 t in mid-2026; the LME alone holds around 274,600 t. On the demand side, European stainless activity stays weak and battery demand disappoints as manufacturers shift towards nickel-free chemistries.
The supply risk has not disappeared. Eramet's Weda Bay remains partly in care-and-maintenance with a 2026 quota of 12 million wmt (from 42 million), and the INSG still expects the first global deficit since 2021 for 2026 (32,000 t). But while the end-July review is pending, the expectation of additional Indonesian volume dominates.
What we watch: the outcome of the RKAB review at the end of July. An increase towards 360 million wmt would flip the 2026 deficit scenario; if the quota stays at 270 million, the current discount is overdone.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Use the price window before the end-July review. At 16,115 USD/t alloy surcharges are at their lowest level of the year; for stainless flat products and alloys, spot purchases and larger contract volumes are now cheaper than at any point since December.
Keep tying the alloy surcharge to the LME monthly average with a cap-and-floor. A fixed surcharge at today's level is attractive but carries the risk that the review comes in tighter than speculated and the price snaps back.
Make the RKAB decision an explicit reset trigger in the contract. Both directions are open: an increase to 360 million wmt weighs further, a confirmation of 270 million puts the INSG deficit back in the foreground.
Nickel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
In this band until the Indonesian quota review at the end of July. (1) Reports that Jakarta could raise the national 2026 RKAB quota to around 360 million wmt weigh on the price, (2) combined LME and ShFE stocks sit at a record of around 469,000 t, (3) weak stainless and battery demand caps any recovery. The INSG deficit of 32,000 t supports only medium term.
Risk Scenario
The end-July review comes in tighter than speculated, the Weda Bay quota stays at 12 million wmt, or Chinese stainless mills rebuild their inventories. Probability 20 to 25 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Wherever suppliers pass through a rising nickel price directly and fully, even though inventories are high and the market remains fundamentally in surplus. Separating surcharges, base material costs, and other cost components creates negotiation leverage.
More than from any other single source. The production cuts at Weda Bay and at the national level demonstrate that Indonesia can actively manage supply. This is currently the central upside risk for nickel prices.
Only when the LME nickel price actually rises significantly and sustainably. With inventories elevated and the market in fundamental surplus, blanket surcharge demands deserve scrutiny. A clean separation of base material cost and processing charges is essential.
