Because the EU requires gas storage to be filled before winter. The target remains 90 percent, but with a fixed margin of 10 percentage points, so that 80 percent counts as compliance; it does not have to be reached on a fixed date but at any point between 1 October and 1 December, and in difficult market conditions the Commission can grant a further 5 percentage points. The regime runs until 31 December 2027. German storage stood at 60.2 percent on 6 November and is already being drawn down (Bundesnetzagentur). ENTSOG warns that EU storage could fall well below 30 percent by the end of winter if LNG remains scarce, and recommends continuing injections into the start of winter. For the price this means: Europe enters winter with low storage and competes with Asia for LNG, while every cold snap increases the pressure.

When the supplier operates a gas-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The surcharge must be traceable to TTF or equivalent benchmark movements, not to generic 'energy cost' claims.

Physically, supply continues: Germany receives gas mainly via pipelines from Norway, the Netherlands, France and Belgium, and LNG mostly from the US, and none of these routes depends on Hormuz. From 29 October to 4 November, 18.1 TWh arrived via pipelines and 1.5 TWh via LNG terminals. In its situation report of 6 November the Bundesnetzagentur rates supply as stable. The precautionary position is tighter: German storage stood at 60.2 percent on 6 November, below the level of 23 October (61.1 percent); withdrawals have begun before storage reached the levels of previous years. The authority expects a comparatively low level at the end of winter. The German government has instructed SEFE to inject an additional 8 TWh by 15 December (Reuters, 30 September). For procurement this means: ask gas-intensive suppliers how they would respond to a call to reduce consumption.

Germany does not receive its gas directly through the Strait of Hormuz, but it is directly affected via the global LNG market. Before the war Qatar supplied 12 to 14 percent of Europe's LNG through the strait. QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to the end of December; around 17 percent of export capacity is damaged, and repairing two trains takes around three years (The National, 29 October). According to ICIS data the country shipped 18 cargoes in the first six months of the war, after 509 in the same period a year earlier. Since early November the Revolutionary Guards have reported mine hits on tankers around Hormuz (Reuters, 1 and 4 November). At the same time Iran signals readiness for talks, and a Qatari draft is on the table (Reuters, 2 November); TTF front month fell to 85.59 EUR/MWh by 6 November. As long as regular departures from Qatar are not possible, a risk premium stays in the price, and even afterwards part of Qatar's volumes will be missing for years.

Because TTF is the central wholesale benchmark for natural gas in Europe. End-customer prices include grid fees, taxes, and levies that obscure the actual market movement. For procurement, the wholesale benchmark is the relevant reference for evaluating supplier price claims.