ENERGY PRICES
Crude Oil Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
03.08.2026
Current crude oil price based on the ICE Brent front-month future (90.12 USD/bbl as of 31 July; July up 24 percent, but the final week saw a pullback from above 100 USD/bbl). Trend analysis on the shift from trading the war to trading the shipping data, the IRGC tanker stops of 31 July, the expected OPEC+ increase for September followed by a pause, and measurable demand destruction in the US. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- Brent closes July at 90.12 USD/bbl (settlement 31 July, up 1.2 percent on the day): up 24 percent for the month, the strongest since March, but down a good 11 percent in the final week after tankers passed the strait again (Reuters).
- The market trades the shipping data: the Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers on 31 July, four turned around; two laden VLCCs exited the strait, traffic remains sparse (Kpler via Reuters). Twenty-nine vessels passed the Bab el-Mandeb on Thursday.
- OPEC+ decides on 2 August: around 188,000 b/d more for September is expected, followed by a pause for the rest of the year (Bloomberg, 28 July).
- US data shows both sides: commercial crude stocks at the lowest level since 2018, but oil demand down 3.5 percent in May; the Reuters poll sees Brent averaging 85.22 USD/bbl in 2026. Check oil-indexed contracts for averaging before the next swing runs through.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The market has stopped trading the war and is trading the shipping data. That is how an SEB analyst put it to Reuters, and the July path proves it: Brent gained 24 percent in the month, the strongest rise since March, but gave up more than 11 percent in the final week from levels above 100 USD/bbl as individual tankers passed the Strait of Hormuz again. On Friday the sign flipped once more: the Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers, four others turned around (Fars via Reuters), and Brent settled at 90.12 USD/bbl, up 1.2 percent.
Shipping remains a trickle: two laden VLCC-class crude carriers exited the strait on Friday, while overall traffic stays sparse according to Kpler data. Twenty-nine cargo vessels passed the Bab el-Mandeb on Thursday, while Saudi Arabia is building a coalition to protect the southern route. Talks between Iran and Oman on managing the strait continue; Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal of joint management (Reuters, 31 July).
OPEC+ decides today: an increase of around 188,000 barrels per day for September is expected, completing the return of the 1.65 million package, followed by a pause for the rest of the year while the group reviews production capacities for the 2027 quotas (Bloomberg, 28 July). Without free passage, though, any quota increase remains mostly an announcement.
Friday's US data shows the market's tension in one dataset: commercial crude stocks fell to their lowest level since 2018, May output ran around 2 percent below the April record, and exports hit a record for the second month running. At the same time, US demand fell more than 3.5 percent in May to its lowest since March 2025: demand destruction is measurable. The Reuters poll of 31 analysts sees Brent averaging 85.22 USD/bbl in 2026, slightly above the June expectation.
At the edges of the conflict, routes are shifting: a drone strike set two gas vessels on fire in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta, putting the Suez Canal at risk, Ukraine hit the Volgograd refinery, and Kazakhstan's Tengiz field is exporting via the Georgian port of Batumi for the first time since March.
What we watch: the OPEC+ decision of 2 August, the daily Hormuz transit data, and whether Damietta stays a one-off or the Suez Canal becomes the third chokepoint.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
July is the strongest argument for averaging this market has delivered in a long time: from around 72 via 100 to 90 USD/bbl in one month. Check oil-indexed contracts (plastics, lubricants, transport, packaging) for monthly averages instead of a single date, in both directions: averaging brakes the rise now and delays the decline later.
Use pullbacks as hedging windows, not as an all-clear. The consensus of 85.22 USD/bbl for 2026 (Reuters poll) sits below the current level; securing tranches of oil-based inputs at prices below 90 is cheaper than spot in the next escalation.
For fuel and freight surcharges, require a breakdown based on the ICE Brent monthly average and an expiry date. Blanket war surcharges without an index reference are negotiable, and the decline of the last July week belongs in the counter-calculation.
Define the OPEC+ decision and the weekly transit data as review points in the contract. After the Damietta attack, the Suez Canal belongs on the watch list: freight routes via the Red Sea now carry a double chokepoint risk.
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Crude Oil Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
In this band as long as the strait is passable only in trickles. (1) The market trades the shipping data: individual transits weigh, stops by the Revolutionary Guards lift, (2) OPEC+ is expected to approve around 188,000 b/d for September on 2 August and pause thereafter, (3) visible demand destruction (US oil demand down 3.5 percent in May) caps the upside. The Reuters analyst expectation of an average 85.22 USD/bbl for 2026 sits in the middle of the band.
Risk Scenario
Attacks reach further littoral energy infrastructure or the Suez Canal (two gas vessels burned at Damietta on 31 July after a drone strike), the Houthis act on the Bab el-Mandeb threat, or Tehran fully stops the transits that have resumed. Probability 30 to 35 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because crude oil in industry typically feeds into cost structures not directly but through materials, chemicals and logistics. For procurement, the consumer price is not the decisive reference; what matters is the crude benchmark and how it transmits through supply chains.
When the supplier can demonstrate a clear link to Brent, petrochemical feedstocks or transportation costs. Less plausible are blanket increases without a clear cost logic.
Primarily petrochemical-adjacent categories such as plastics, packaging, chemicals, resins, coatings, lubricants, and logistics or freight surcharges. These are the categories where Brent impacts European industrial procurement most directly.
Because ICE Brent is the relevant international crude benchmark for European industrial procurement. Retail fuel and heating oil prices include additional national and downstream price components, which makes them far less suitable for evaluating procurement risks and cost escalation clauses. WTI is reported only as US comparison context.
