ENERGY PRICES
Crude Oil Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
09.11.2026
Current crude oil price based on ICE Brent front month (98.32 USD/bbl as of 6 November, after 117.64 USD/bbl on 30 October). Trend analysis of the talks on ending the war and the Qatari draft, mine incidents around Hormuz, the strikes on Qeshm and the OPEC+ meeting on 29 November. Procurement recommendations for European buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- Brent fell in one week from 117.64 USD/bbl (30 October, expiring December contract) to 98.32 USD/bbl (6 November, January contract). On 4 November the price lost 8.7 percent in a single day; part of the weekly decline reflects the contract switch.
- The trigger is signals for talks: President Pezeshkian said on 2 November that Khamenei had granted him authority for peace talks; a Qatari draft is on the table (Reuters). Qatar denies that the talks have failed (Al Jazeera, 7 November).
- The situation remains tense: the Revolutionary Guards reported mine hits on several tankers around Hormuz on 1 and 4 November, not independently confirmed (Reuters). On 6 November the US struck air defence positions on Qeshm (Al Jazeera).
- Budgets at 115 USD/bbl are as outdated as hopes for pre-war prices: Brent is 55 percent above the previous year. Use the decline in price talks, but do not fix everything at once.
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
The prospect of talks has cut the oil price by a sixth within a week. On 2 November Iran's President Pezeshkian said that Supreme Leader Khamenei had granted him "certain authorities" for peace talks; a Qatari draft for ending the war is circulating among the parties (Reuters, 2 November). Brent then fell from 117.64 to 94.62 USD/bbl between 30 October and 4 November, by 8.7 percent on 4 November alone. Part of this decline reflects the contract switch: the December contract expired on 30 October, and the January contract has been the front month since 2 November. On 6 November Brent closed at 98.32 USD/bbl.
The risk premium is smaller, but it has not disappeared. On 1 November the Revolutionary Guards reported that two tankers had hit mines and exploded on an "unauthorized route" through the Strait of Hormuz; on 4 November they spoke of four burning tankers south of the strait and two seized vessels (Reuters). These claims are not independently confirmed. On 6 November the US struck air defence positions on Qeshm island, according to President Trump, who at the same time spoke of "a lot of progress" in the talks; Qatar denies that the negotiations have failed (Al Jazeera, 7 November). Brent rose again by 3.9 percent on 5 November.
The bypass route also remains a target. On 26 October the Houthis again claimed attacks on East-West pipeline pumping stations and on Riyadh airport, two days after the attacks on Yanbu and Rabigh. Saudi Arabia confirmed no damage; the coalition reported destroyed missile positions near Sanaa (Reuters, 26 October). The pipeline carries Saudi crude past Hormuz to the Red Sea and ran at 5.8 million barrels per day in early October (Reuters, 7 October).
Inventories are the reason the price is not falling further. Around 1 billion barrels have been drawn from stocks worldwide since the war began, ADNOC said on 2 November. Goldman Sachs considers Brent at up to 140 USD/bbl possible in 2027 if supply stays short (Reuters, 2 November). The OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts left their December output unchanged on 1 November (OPEC).
What we are watching: whether the Qatari draft becomes a signed agreement, further mine incidents and strikes after Qeshm, confirmed damage to the East-West pipeline and the OPEC+ meeting on 29 November.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Use the decline in your next price talks. At 98.32 USD/bbl, Brent is almost 20 USD/bbl below its level of 30 October. Suppliers of plastics, resins, coatings, lubricants and logistics who announced increases in October mostly based them on levels around 110 to 117 USD/bbl. Ask which Brent value the demand refers to, and request an adjustment if the price stays below it during the billing period.
Do not fix everything at the current level. The decline rests on expectations, not on more oil in the market. A failure of the talks can quickly bring Brent back above 110 USD/bbl, an implemented agreement could push it below 85 USD/bbl. If you have to buy volumes for the first quarter of 2027 at a fixed price, spread the fixing over several dates until the end of January.
Check oil-linked price adjustment clauses for symmetry now. Many clauses settled after the end of October capture the peak but not the subsequent decline. Clauses based on the monthly average with a lag pass the decline on only in December or January. In renegotiations, agree on averaging over three months, a cap per adjustment step and a reduction under the same rules as the increase.
Keep separating raw material and freight surcharges. War risk premiums for ships in the Gulf remain high as long as mine incidents are reported; they belong in a separate line linked to a traceable index. A flat surcharge that mixes the lower oil price and freight risks is negotiable.
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Crude Oil Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
Within this range over the next four to six weeks. (1) Brent fell from 117.64 to 98.32 USD/bbl between 30 October and 6 November as the market prices in talks on ending the war, (2) mine incidents around Hormuz and the strikes on Qeshm keep a risk premium in the price, (3) the draw of around 1 billion barrels from inventories since the war began limits the room to fall, (4) the OPEC+ meeting on 29 November and progress in the talks via Qatar set the next signals.
Risk Scenario
Within this range if one of the following triggers occurs over the next three months. (1) The talks fail and the US extends its strikes beyond Qeshm, (2) further mine hits bring the remaining tanker traffic through Hormuz to a halt, (3) a confirmed hit on the East-West pipeline or Yanbu shuts down the bypass route. Brent would then return to its late-October level and rise above it. Probability 25 percent over the next three months. A signed and implemented agreement to reopen the strait would instead take Brent below 85 USD/bbl.
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Frequently Asked Questions
It shows whether your clauses work in both directions. Brent fell from 117.64 to 94.62 USD/bbl between 30 October and 4 November after Iran signalled readiness for peace talks and a Qatari draft became known (Reuters, 2 November); on 6 November the price stood at 98.32 USD/bbl. Clauses based on daily values or reference dates at the end of October capture the peak but not the decline. Clauses based on monthly averages with a lag of one to three months pass the reduction on only in December or later. Check three points: which reference date applies, whether reductions follow the same rules as increases, and whether a cap per step has been agreed. For new contracts we recommend averaging over at least three months and a symmetrical adjustment. Ask suppliers for evidence of which share of costs actually depends on Brent.
Because crude oil in industry typically feeds into cost structures not directly but through materials, chemicals and logistics. For procurement, the consumer price is not the decisive reference; what matters is the crude benchmark and how it transmits through supply chains.
When the supplier can demonstrate a clear link to Brent, petrochemical feedstocks or transportation costs. Less plausible are blanket increases without a clear cost logic.
Primarily petrochemical-adjacent categories such as plastics, packaging, chemicals, resins, coatings, lubricants, and logistics or freight surcharges. These are the categories where Brent impacts European industrial procurement most directly.
Because ICE Brent is the relevant international crude benchmark for European industrial procurement. Retail fuel and heating oil prices include additional national and downstream price components, which makes them far less suitable for evaluating procurement risks and cost escalation clauses. WTI is reported only as US comparison context.
