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Electricity Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
03.08.2026
Current electricity price based on the EEX German Baseload Cal-27 future (104.24 EUR/MWh as of 31 July, practically unchanged on mid-July). Trend analysis on the defended 100 mark with TTF holding its level, the first Qatari LNG passage through Hormuz as a relief signal, the gap to France widening to almost 40 EUR/MWh, and the industrial power price programme. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- EEX Cal-27 defends the 100 mark: 104.24 EUR/MWh as of 31 July, practically unchanged on mid-July and up 12.1 percent on end-June (energy-charts/EEX).
- The coupling stays tight: TTF holds its level at 59.44 EUR/MWh (up 30 percent on end-June); the first Qatari LNG passage through Hormuz since 5 July (30 July, Bloomberg) is a signal, not yet a trend.
- The gap to France has widened to almost 40 EUR/MWh: France trades Cal-27 at 64.73 EUR/MWh, Germany at 104.24; the German forward carries the full gas premium.
- Cooler weather relieves the spot market after the expensive June heat; the industrial power price programme (15 to 25 EUR/MWh for the 91 KUEBLL sectors) remains the biggest single lever at this level.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The forward has settled in above the 100 mark. EEX German Baseload Cal-27 traded at 104.24 EUR/MWh on 31 July, practically unchanged on mid-July and 12.1 percent above end-June. The driver stays the same: TTF holds its high level at 59.44 EUR/MWh, and as long as gas plants set the price in peak hours, the gas market pins the power forward.
The two weeks brought a first relief signal: on 30 July the Al Areesh passed the Strait of Hormuz as the first Qatari LNG cargo since 5 July (Bloomberg). The forward market barely reacted, and that is consistent: one passage is no recovery, more than a dozen tankers still wait off Ras Laffan, and with the drone strike on gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta the risk has broadened towards Suez at the same time. For the power forward this means: the path below 100 runs through regular Qatari sailings, not single ships.
How large the geopolitical premium in the German price is shows in the view west: France traded Cal-27 at 64.73 EUR/MWh on 31 July, almost 40 EUR/MWh below the German contract. Nuclear-backed French generation decouples from the gas price, German generation does not. This spread is the strongest argument in any siting and hedging discussion.
At the short end the situation has eased: cooler weather in Northwest Europe has taken the cooling load, and with it the spot spikes of the June heat (up to 566 EUR/MWh in the evening), out of the market for now. The heat-lull mechanics stay in the system, though; any new heat block in August can reactivate them, especially as French plant availability in high summer remains the known weak spot.
On the cost base nothing changes: the industrial power price programme still cushions 15 to 25 EUR/MWh for the 91 KUEBLL sectors. With a forward above 100 EUR/MWh it remains the biggest single lever in power procurement.
What we watch: the frequency of Qatari sailings as the TTF driver, French plant availability in August, and whether the DE-FR spread of almost 40 EUR/MWh persists.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Keep the tranche discipline from the previous cycle: hold secured volumes, add further tranches only on visible de-escalation signals. What is new is that a definable signal now exists: regular Qatari sailings from Ras Laffan would be the trigger from which TTF, and with it Cal-27, can give way sustainably. A single ship is not.
Keep putting the KUEBLL eligibility check before every tranche decision: with Cal-27 above 100 EUR/MWh, 15 to 25 EUR/MWh of relief is the difference between manageable and critical.
Use the France spread in negotiations and siting decisions: almost 40 EUR/MWh of distance for 2027 documents what the gas coupling costs the German location. For suppliers with French or Nordic production, a blanket energy surcharge at German levels is not justifiable.
Keep load flexibility ready even while the spot market is calm: the next heat block can push the midday-to-evening spread back to a factor of six, and whoever can shift buys themselves out of exactly those hours.
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Electricity Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) TTF holds its level (59.44 EUR/MWh, up 30 percent on end-June) and carries the forward above the 100 mark, (2) the first Qatari passage through Hormuz is a relief signal that would need follow-ups to pull gas and power down together, (3) cooler weather takes out spot spikes but changes little on the forward market. A move back towards 96 requires regular Qatari sailings.
Risk Scenario
TTF rises above 70 EUR/MWh (stalling Qatari sailings, escalation around Suez or the Bab el-Mandeb), plus an August with a new heatwave and French reactor curtailments as in June. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because the wholesale electricity price in Europe follows the merit order principle: the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand sets the price. As long as gas plants are the marginal producer during peak hours, gas prices continue to directly influence electricity prices.
Because the day-ahead market reacts hourly to supply and demand. In March 2026 this means high intraday volatility driven by renewable generation swings, while the forward market smooths these fluctuations into more stable procurement-relevant price bands.
Because negative hours do not automatically reduce the price of a standardized industrial supply contract. Most industrial consumers buy on forward contracts or structured PPAs where negative spot hours have limited or no impact on the contracted rate.
When the supplier operates an electricity-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The claim must be verifiable against EEX forward curves and actual contract structures, not against generic 'energy prices are high' statements.
Because household electricity prices are barely relevant for industrial procurement. For purchasing, wholesale prices (EEX base and peak), PPA rates, and the structure of industrial supply contracts matter — not the consumer tariff with its taxes, levies, and grid fees.
