ENERGY PRICES
Electricity Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
11.05.2026
Current electricity price based on the EEX German Baseload Cal-27 future (around 92.40 EUR/MWh). Trend analysis on the gas-power coupling after the Iran-war spike, the BDEW Strompreisanalyse April 2026 (industrial price 16.0 ct/kWh, down 1.6 ct year on year), mixed offshore wind CfD tender results, and the politically open industrial power price brace extension. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- EEX German Baseload Cal-27 around 92.40 EUR/MWh, lifted by TTF carry since March. Gas-power coupling remains the dominant pricing mechanism on baseload.
- BDEW April analysis: industrial power price for mid-sized facilities at 16.0 ct/kWh, down 1.6 ct/kWh year-on-year. Transmission grid subsidy and lower procurement costs are the drivers.
- German offshore wind CfD tenders in April delivered mixed results, industry associations read it as a slower build-out signal.
- Industrial power price brace extension remains politically open, the federal government is discussing a bridge to mid-2027.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
EEX German Baseload Cal-27 trades around 92.40 EUR/MWh as of 8 May, up around six percent from mid-April. The German forward moves nearly in step with TTF, because gas marginal pricing in the H2 power mix still delivers the dominant price signal. The Iran war and QatarEnergy's force majeure have set TTF structurally higher, and the effect passes through to all forward years where gas dominates marginal pricing.
The BDEW Strompreisanalyse from April 2026 reports the average industrial power price for mid-sized facilities at 16.0 ct/kWh, down 1.6 ct/kWh year-on-year. The drivers are the subsidy of transmission grid fees and lower procurement costs versus the previous-year high. For larger industrial operations in the mid-segment (20 to 70 million kWh per year) the price sits at 15.9 ct/kWh, for heavy industry (70 to 150 million kWh per year) slightly higher at 14.4 ct/kWh.
On the supply side, the German offshore wind CfD tenders closed in April with mixed results. Several industry associations read this as a slower build-out signal, which keeps the marginal mix in H2 2026 and 2027 anchored on gas. The industrial power price brace extension remains politically open, the federal government is debating it as a bridge measure to mid-2027, with no final decision yet.
For H2 2026, three event types move the power forward. First the OPEC monthly reports and EU storage updates, which move TTF and therefore Cal-27. Second the auctions for strategic reserves under Regulation 2025/1733, which influence power demand for storage injection. Third the ENTSO-E summer outlooks on availability and bottlenecks, published in June.
For the next four to eight weeks we expect EEX German Baseload Cal-27 in an 85 to 98 EUR/MWh band, with a clear upward bias on any TTF wave. Cal-28 sits around 86 EUR/MWh, Cal-29 around 78 EUR/MWh, reflecting market expectations of gradual easing in subsequent years.
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What does this mean for European procurement?
Layer Cal-27 in two or three tranches over the next six weeks. A single anchor order on a fixed day is strategically expensive in this environment, because the forward breathes with TTF. A multi-tranche strategy captures the lower band of the base scenario reliably.
For Cal-28 place a limit order at 82 EUR/MWh or below. This gives the option to translate a TTF easing in 2026 into a lower forward without active market monitoring. Cal-29 around 78 EUR/MWh is more attractive on price but volume is thin, tickets above five MWh on average are difficult to place.
Demand from power suppliers a separate breakout of procurement, grid and tax components. The BDEW data show that the politically influenced share (taxes, levies, grid fees) keeps falling for large consumers, while the pure procurement share rises. Flat contract pricing obscures where the movement is coming from.
For energy-intensive production with own generation option, audit actively whether a summer switch to grid power via EEX is economic. With TTF around 42.80 EUR/MWh and EEX Cal-27 around 92.40 EUR/MWh, grid power is cheaper than own gas generation for many sites, depending on efficiency and CO2 burden.
For contracts with indexed power components, that is aluminium rolling mills, foundries, glass and paper, an EEX cal peg rather than spot peg smooths the pass-through in both directions and protects against TTF-spike transmission.
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Electricity Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
For the next four to eight weeks we expect Cal-27 in an 85 to 98 EUR/MWh band. (1) Gas-power coupling stays dominant, TTF carry holds the level. (2) BDEW industrial price at 16.0 ct/kWh, slightly down year-on-year. (3) Offshore wind CfD tenders deliver mixed results, build-out slowing. (4) Industrial power brace extension politically open.
Risk Scenario
In the risk scenario Cal-27 runs to 100 to 115 EUR/MWh. (1) Hormuz escalation pulls TTF to 60+ EUR/MWh, the power forward follows with leverage. (2) A hot summer in Central Europe, low PV self-consumption rate, higher grid load. (3) France reports reactor availability issues, power imports to Germany reduced. (4) Industrial power brace expires without replacement. Probability over eight weeks: 20 to 25 percent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because the wholesale electricity price in Europe follows the merit order principle: the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand sets the price. As long as gas plants are the marginal producer during peak hours, gas prices continue to directly influence electricity prices.
Because the day-ahead market reacts hourly to supply and demand. In March 2026 this means high intraday volatility driven by renewable generation swings, while the forward market smooths these fluctuations into more stable procurement-relevant price bands.
Because negative hours do not automatically reduce the price of a standardized industrial supply contract. Most industrial consumers buy on forward contracts or structured PPAs where negative spot hours have limited or no impact on the contracted rate.
When the supplier operates an electricity-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The claim must be verifiable against EEX forward curves and actual contract structures, not against generic 'energy prices are high' statements.
Because household electricity prices are barely relevant for industrial procurement. For purchasing, wholesale prices (EEX base and peak), PPA rates, and the structure of industrial supply contracts matter — not the consumer tariff with its taxes, levies, and grid fees.
