ENERGY PRICES
Electricity Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
22.06.2026
Current electricity price based on the EEX German Baseload Cal-27 future (around 92.71 EUR/MWh, little changed even as the TTF front-month fell to 42.10 EUR/MWh). Trend analysis on the divergence between the fallen daily gas price and the sticky 2027 power forward, the fragile Hormuz situation (Iran declared the strait closed again on 20 June), the BDEW electricity price analysis at 16.7 ct/kWh for industrial new contracts, and the industrial power-price programme for the 91 KUEBLL sectors. Cal-27 remains 14.5 percent above the prior year. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- EEX Cal-27 at around 92.71 EUR/MWh as of 19 June, little changed even as the TTF front-month fell around 13 percent to 42.10 EUR/MWh.
- The divergence is the point: the daily gas price gives back risk premium, the 2027 power forward does not, because the structural Qatari capacity loss carries through and the Hormuz situation stays fragile (Iran declared the strait closed again on 20 June).
- BDEW reports 16.7 ct/kWh for industrial new contracts, plus 5 percent; Cal-27 remains around 14.5 percent above the prior year.
- Industrial power-price programme: up to 50 percent off for eligible KUEBLL sectors on half of consumption, that is 15 to 25 EUR/MWh.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
EEX German Baseload Cal-27 stands at around 92.71 EUR/MWh as of 19 June, little changed even as the TTF front-month fell around 13 percent to 42.10 EUR/MWh after the Gulf de-escalation. This divergence is the key point: the daily gas price has given back part of the war risk premium, the 2027 power forward has not.
That the power price holds fits the fragile Gulf situation. Iran declared the strait closed again on 20 June, CENTCOM disputes it. Cal-27 prices the year 2027, and the structural loss of Qatari liquefaction capacity carries through to then. On top come CO2 costs and plant availability, which matter more for the 2027 power price than a short-term gas dip. As long as gas sets the price in peak hours, Cal-27 stays near 90 EUR/MWh.
Cal-27 remains around 14.5 percent above the prior year. BDEW reports 16.7 ct/kWh for new contracts for small and medium industrial firms, 5 percent more than the prior year.
Part of this can be cushioned by the industrial power-price programme. Companies in the 91 KUEBLL sectors (metals, chemicals, glass, paper, plastics and others) receive up to 50 percent off the wholesale price for half of their consumption, that is 15 to 25 EUR/MWh. The requirement is the matching WZ code.
What we watch: whether the TTF drop holds despite the renewed escalation and feeds through to Cal-27 with a lag. If TTF falls durably below 40 EUR/MWh, a level below 90 EUR/MWh comes into reach; if the Hormuz closure bites physically, the dip is moot.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
Do not let the TTF drop convince you that Cal-27 falls automatically with it. The 2027 power forward holds because the structural gas loss carries through to then and the Hormuz situation stays uncertain after the 20 June closure declaration. Keep staggering Cal-27 in tranches rather than waiting for a fast drop.
One possible structure: a first tranche at the current level, a second on a durable TTF below 40 EUR/MWh that should also pull Cal-27 below 90 EUR/MWh, the third flexible for renewed escalation.
Check eligibility for the industrial power price directly in the next tender. For eligible plants it is the single biggest lever on the cost side and should be priced in before the tranche decision.
Tie power contracts to the EEX forward with a clearly defined reference period. As long as gas sets the price, the industrial power price remains the relevant counter-move to a sticky Cal-27.
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Electricity Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
For the next 4 to 6 weeks we expect 86 to 98 EUR/MWh. As long as gas sets the price in peak hours and the structural Qatari capacity loss carries through to 2027, Cal-27 stays near 90 EUR/MWh even with the daily TTF lower. The fragile Hormuz situation keeps the risk premium in the forward. The industrial power price can be worth 15 to 25 EUR/MWh for eligible plants.
Risk Scenario
If the 20 June Hormuz closure bites physically (TTF back above 55 EUR/MWh), with a hot summer and French reactor outages, we see 98 to 108 EUR/MWh. Probability 25 to 30 percent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because the wholesale electricity price in Europe follows the merit order principle: the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand sets the price. As long as gas plants are the marginal producer during peak hours, gas prices continue to directly influence electricity prices.
Because the day-ahead market reacts hourly to supply and demand. In March 2026 this means high intraday volatility driven by renewable generation swings, while the forward market smooths these fluctuations into more stable procurement-relevant price bands.
Because negative hours do not automatically reduce the price of a standardized industrial supply contract. Most industrial consumers buy on forward contracts or structured PPAs where negative spot hours have limited or no impact on the contracted rate.
When the supplier operates an electricity-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The claim must be verifiable against EEX forward curves and actual contract structures, not against generic 'energy prices are high' statements.
Because household electricity prices are barely relevant for industrial procurement. For purchasing, wholesale prices (EEX base and peak), PPA rates, and the structure of industrial supply contracts matter — not the consumer tariff with its taxes, levies, and grid fees.
