ENERGY PRICES
Electricity Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
09.11.2026
Current electricity price based on EEX German Baseload Cal-27 (144.71 EUR/MWh as of 6 November, after the year high of 164.27 EUR/MWh on 30 October). Trend analysis of the decline alongside gas, a spot market with weekly averages above 250 EUR/MWh, the federal government's decision on the grid subsidy and the gap to France. Procurement recommendations for European buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- EEX Cal-27 reached its year high of 164.27 EUR/MWh on 30 October and fell to 144.71 EUR/MWh by 6 November. The driver is gas: TTF fell 17.7 percent over the same period after Iran signalled readiness for peace talks (Reuters, 2 November).
- The spot market remains expensive: the weekly average of the German day-ahead market was 256.59 EUR/MWh from 2 to 8 November, after 230.24 EUR/MWh the week before (energy-charts). Little wind and high heating demand let gas plants set the price in almost every hour.
- The federal government sticks to the grid subsidy of EUR 5.525 billion per year for 2027 to 2029 and rejects the Bundesrat's demand for EUR 6.5 billion (printed paper 21/8826, 28 October).
- Cal-28 trades at 105.04 EUR/MWh, around 40 EUR/MWh below 2027. Multi-year contracts covering 2027 and 2028 lower the average price considerably.
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
The power price has fallen from its year high together with gas. EEX German Baseload Cal-27 rose to 164.27 EUR/MWh by 30 October, the highest close of the year, and fell to 144.71 EUR/MWh by 6 November, a drop of 19.56 EUR/MWh. The trigger was signals from Tehran: on 2 November President Pezeshkian said that Khamenei had granted him authority for peace talks, and a Qatari draft is circulating (Reuters). TTF fell from 103.94 to 85.59 EUR/MWh over the same period. Because gas plants set the price in many hours, every move in the gas market passes almost fully into the power forward market.
The decline affects all countries similarly. France Cal-27 fell from 128.16 to 113.29 EUR/MWh between 30 October and 6 November and stands 31.42 EUR/MWh below Germany. Austria trades at 162.46 EUR/MWh, Switzerland at 154.71 EUR/MWh. For 2028 the German price of 105.04 EUR/MWh is almost 40 EUR/MWh below 2027: the market expects tension in the gas market to ease (energy-charts, 6 November).
Little of this shows in the spot market. The weekly average of the German day-ahead market rose from 230.24 EUR/MWh (26 October to 1 November) to 256.59 EUR/MWh (2 to 8 November). On 29 October the daily average was 314.85 EUR/MWh, and the auction for Monday 9 November cleared at 345.64 EUR/MWh (energy-charts). Unlike mid-October, there were no windy days to push the price down. The spot price is thus well above the forward price for 2027 and shows how much gas is needed for power generation in winter.
On grid fees the federal government has decided. In its counter-statement of 28 October it rejects the Bundesrat's demand to keep the federal subsidy for transmission grids at EUR 6.5 billion; the bill still provides EUR 5.525 billion per year for 2027 to 2029 (printed paper 21/8826). On 1 October the transmission system operators had published provisional fees for 2027 averaging 3.54 ct/kWh, after 2.86 ct/kWh in 2026. The Bundestag decides on the budget.
What we are watching: the gas price and progress in the talks via Qatar, temperatures and wind output in December, the availability of French nuclear plants and the Bundestag debate on the grid subsidy.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Use the decline for the next tranche for 2027. At 144.71 EUR/MWh, Cal-27 is almost 20 EUR/MWh below the year high of 30 October, but 68 percent above the previous year's value. The decline rests on the expectation of talks in the Gulf; if they fail, the price will quickly rise again. If you still have 2027 open, fix part of it now, spread the rest over several tranches into the first quarter and set price limits that trigger automatic follow-up purchases.
Check whether you can shift volumes to 2028. At 105.04 EUR/MWh, Cal-28 is around 40 EUR/MWh below 2027. Multi-year contracts averaging 2027 and 2028 lower the average price considerably. Suppliers offering fixed prices for 2027 should submit an offer for 2027 and 2028 together.
Do not let high spot prices push you into surcharges. Weekly averages above 250 EUR/MWh on the day-ahead market only affect suppliers buying unhedged on the spot market. For electricity-related demands, ask for energy, grid fees, levies and margin to be shown separately, and for evidence of which share of demand is bought on the spot market.
Plan 2027 grid fees with the lower subsidy. The federal government sticks to EUR 5.525 billion and has rejected the Bundesrat's demand for EUR 6.5 billion. Plan with the provisional fees averaging 3.54 ct/kWh at transmission level and a surcharge for distribution grids until the final fees are published.
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Electricity Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
Within this range over the next four to six weeks. (1) Cal-27 fell from 164.27 to 144.71 EUR/MWh between 30 October and 6 November, in parallel with the gas price, (2) TTF around 85 EUR/MWh, low gas storage and high winter spot prices support the price on the downside, (3) Cal-28, around 40 EUR/MWh cheaper, and the expectation of easing in the Gulf cap the upside, (4) the talks on ending the war and December temperatures decide the direction of the gas price and thus of the power price.
Risk Scenario
Within this range if one of the following triggers occurs over the next three months. (1) The talks fail and TTF rises above 100 EUR/MWh again, (2) a cold snap with little wind drives spot prices and withdrawals from gas storage, (3) French nuclear plants fail in winter. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months. An implemented agreement in the Gulf would instead quickly take Cal-27 below 130 EUR/MWh.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because the wholesale electricity price in Europe follows the merit order principle: the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand sets the price. As long as gas plants are the marginal producer during peak hours, gas prices continue to directly influence electricity prices.
Because the day-ahead market reacts to supply and demand every quarter-hour. Hours with high renewable output push the price to zero or below at times, while gas plants set high peaks in hours with little wind. In mid-October the daily average of the German day-ahead spot fell to 13.12 EUR/MWh on the windy 25 October; on 29 October it stood at 314.85 EUR/MWh, and from 2 to 8 November the weekly average was 256.59 EUR/MWh (energy-charts). The year-ahead future smooths these swings and stood at 144.71 EUR/MWh on 6 November. That is the more relevant reference for most industrial supply contracts; the spot market matters where loads can be shifted into cheap hours, and it is a risk for suppliers buying unhedged.
Because negative hours do not automatically reduce the price of a standardized industrial supply contract. Most industrial consumers buy on forward contracts or structured PPAs where negative spot hours have limited or no impact on the contracted rate.
When the supplier operates an electricity-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The claim must be verifiable against EEX forward curves and actual contract structures, not against generic 'energy prices are high' statements.
Because household electricity prices are barely relevant for industrial procurement. For purchasing, wholesale prices (EEX base and peak), PPA rates, and the structure of industrial supply contracts matter, not the consumer tariff with its taxes, levies, and grid fees.
