ENERGY PRICES
Natural Gas Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
03.08.2026
Current natural gas price based on the ICE TTF front-month future (59.44 EUR/MWh as of 31 July, up 30 percent on end-June). Trend analysis on the first Qatari passage through Hormuz since the Al Rekayyat attack (Al Areesh, 30 July), the drone strike on gas vessels at Damietta on the Suez route, the EU storage gap (around 55 percent at end-July, injection rate below target path) and Asian competition for free cargoes. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- TTF front-month at 59.44 EUR/MWh as of 31 July, up 30 percent on end-June; cooler weather weighed on Thursday (58.43 EUR/MWh), Friday closed firmer again.
- First supply signal since the Al Rekayyat attack: the Al Areesh passed the Strait of Hormuz on 30 July as the first Qatari cargo since 5 July, destination Pakistan; more than a dozen tankers still wait off Ras Laffan (Bloomberg).
- The risk is broadening: a drone strike set two gas vessels on fire in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta on 31 July, near the Suez Canal (Reuters).
- EU storage around 55 percent as of 28 July, around 11 points below the prior year; the injection rate stays below the path for the 80 percent target, and Europe's LNG imports run well below the prior year in July. The open third tranche remains the winter's critical case.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
For the first time since the attack on the Al Rekayyat, a Qatari LNG tanker has passed the Strait of Hormuz again. The Al Areesh, waiting laden in the Gulf since early July, sailed through the strait towards the Gulf of Oman on 30 July, with Pakistan signalled as its destination (Bloomberg). It is the first supply signal since Qatar's stop of 7 July, but not yet a recovery: more than a dozen tankers still sit off Ras Laffan, and renewed US strikes on Iran keep the risk high that the passage stays a one-off.
The TTF front-month closed at 59.44 EUR/MWh on 31 July, up 30 percent on end-June. The weekly path shows what the market currently hangs on: cooler weather in Northwest Europe took out cooling load on Thursday (down 3.7 percent to 58.43 EUR/MWh), and the price firmed again on Friday. The comparison with oil is instructive: Brent gave up more than 11 percent in the same week, the TTF held its level. The market increasingly treats this war as an LNG shipping problem.
And the problem is broadening geographically: on 31 July a drone strike set two gas vessels on fire in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta, right on the Suez route (Reuters). With Hormuz, the threatened Bab el-Mandeb and now the eastern Mediterranean, all three routes for Gulf and Mediterranean LNG towards Europe are affected.
The storage side remains the structural buyer in the market: around 55 percent full as of 28 July, around 11 points below the prior year, and the injection rate still runs below the path required by the target, lowered to 80 percent, for 1 November. Europe's LNG imports run well below the prior year in July, exactly in the phase when injections should happen; ACER calls for higher imports. On the plus side, terminal deliveries have picked up recently and Norwegian exports run stable at high levels.
What we watch: whether further sailings from Ras Laffan follow the Al Areesh, the situation around Damietta and the Suez Canal, the weekly injection rate, and Asian spot prices as the competition indicator.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
The tranche logic stays in critical-case mode, but for the first time it gets a relief signal. The Al Areesh passage is not yet a trend; therefore define a concrete trigger for fixing the open third tranche, such as the sustained resumption of regular Qatari sailings or a TTF pullback below 54 EUR/MWh, instead of dealing at the weekly high.
Keep checking clause symmetry from the buyer's perspective: at plus 30 percent versus end-June, the averaging mechanics decide how fast the rise runs into your costs, and the same mechanics determine how fast relief arrives.
Keep load flexibility active: interruptible loads, fuel-switching options and shifting production out of peak-price windows remain real alternatives to expensive fixing in this environment, especially while the market swings between single signals.
Keep treating the 80 percent storage target as a market signal: as long as the injection rate runs below the required path, state-driven buying is in the market and supports every dip. New on the watch list is the Suez route: after Damietta, Mediterranean LNG can also attract a risk premium.
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Natural Gas Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
In this band as long as the strait is passable only in trickles. (1) The Al Areesh passage is a signal, not a recovery: more than a dozen tankers still wait off Ras Laffan, (2) storage buying for the 80 percent target meets tightened supply and supports the floor, (3) cooler weather in Northwest Europe and firm Norwegian flows take out the spikes. Asian competition for free cargoes stays high.
Risk Scenario
Qatari sailings stall again after the first passage, the Damietta attack widens into a threat to the Suez Canal, the Houthis blockade the Bab el-Mandeb, or a hot August in Asia pulls further cargoes away; then the 80 percent storage target for 1 November also moves out of reach and the market prices in winter scarcity early. Probability 30 to 35 percent over the next eight weeks.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because the EU requires gas storage to be well filled before winter. For 2026 the binding target was lowered from 90 to 80 percent by 1 November. At the end of July storage stands at around 55 percent, around 11 points below the prior year, and the injection rate runs below the path the target requires; ACER calls for higher LNG imports. That means Europe has to buy large volumes of gas into a tightened market over the summer, which supports the TTF price. The first Qatari passage since 5 July (Al Areesh, 30 July) is a signal, but does not change the calculation yet.
When the supplier operates a gas-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The surcharge must be traceable to TTF or equivalent benchmark movements, not to generic 'energy cost' claims.
Physically, supply keeps flowing: Germany imports LNG mainly from the US and has import routes via Norway, the Netherlands, France and Belgium that do not depend on Hormuz. The effect of the closure is therefore mainly on price. The precautionary picture is tighter: EU storage stands at around 55 percent at the end of July, around 11 points below the prior year, and ACER calls for higher LNG imports to reach the 80 percent target by 1 November.
Germany does not source its gas directly through the Strait of Hormuz, but is directly affected via the global LNG market. Qatar supplies 12 to 14 percent of Europe's LNG through the strait. After the attack on the tanker Al Rekayyat, Qatar stopped its export recovery; on 30 July the Al Areesh became the first Qatari cargo since 5 July to pass the strait, but more than a dozen tankers still wait off Ras Laffan. The TTF front-month stands at 59.44 EUR/MWh as of 31 July, up 30 percent on end-June; as long as the strait is passable only in trickles, every European storage purchase competes with Asia for fewer free cargoes.
Because TTF is the central wholesale benchmark for natural gas in Europe. End-customer prices include grid fees, taxes, and levies that obscure the actual market movement. For procurement, the wholesale benchmark is the relevant reference for evaluating supplier price claims.
