Aluminum is currently one of the most volatile topics in procurement. The escalation in the Middle East is impacting a market that has already been under pressure for months, making supply security an open question. Anyone currently calculating costs, securing volumes, or negotiating contracts needs a reliable assessment of what the situation in the aluminum market truly means and what room for maneuver remains.

Lana Hebisch (Sales Director DACH at Hydro) and Brian Neumann (Strategic Buyer at Hymer Leichtmetallbau) discuss the current market situation with Laura Weiher (Customer Value Manager at Tacto). Hydro offers the perspective of a fully integrated aluminum producer on supply, pricing, and supply risks, while Hymer provides a first-hand account of how an industrial processor, with an annual aluminum demand of over 2,000 tons, operates in this specific situation.

Supply Security in a Supply Shock

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Lana Hebisch assesses the global situation: Of approximately 75 million tons of primary aluminum, about 60 percent is attributed to China, which largely remains within the country. The global market outside China thus comprises only about 30 million tons, with the Middle East accounting for approximately 7 million tons, or about a quarter. The Strait of Hormuz has a dual impact: produced material cannot exit, and at the same time, the necessary alumina must reach the smelters through the same channel. Already, about 2.5 million tons of capacity have been idled, including approximately one million tons of billet production, which is essential for extrusion. Even with an immediate opening of the Strait, the mere transport of pre-produced material would take three to six months, and restarting idled smelters would take six to twelve months. As the only fully integrated aluminum group outside China, Hydro itself is only marginally affected.

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Billet Premium and the Path to Stable Prices

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Regarding prices, Lana Hebisch points to two distinct effects. The LME price has been rising since last spring, driven by higher energy, transport, and personnel costs in Europe, and more recently by the Middle East supply crunch. She considers a return to 2023 or 2024 levels unlikely. The billet premium has shown particularly significant development, almost doubling within the last four months, and is unlikely to recede quickly even if the situation eases. Additionally, there are structural issues: aluminum scrap is scarce in Europe because the metal remains in circulation for 30 to 35 years, and much process scrap flows to Southeast Asia for sorting, plus the EU has classified aluminum as a critical raw material. Her recommendation for procurement is to secure a portion of demand in advance through metal contracts to ensure availability and planning certainty.

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Partnerships in Volatile Times

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Brian Neumann translates the market situation into the practical reality of a processor. Hymer Leichtmetallbau generates approximately 62 million Euros in revenue with around 350 employees; its largest material group is aluminum, with over 2,000 tons per year. His most important principle is not to panic or make hasty decisions, but rather to thoroughly analyze scenarios and proactively secure demand. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Hymer immediately contacted all suppliers, shared demand forecasts with them, and maintained control over supply in almost all cases through consistent dual sourcing.

During negotiations, Brian Neumann leverages flexibility beyond the fixed LME price, such as bonus agreements or temporary payment terms, and deliberately keeps price increases separate so they can be reversed later if costs decrease. Hymer documents all price increases and supplier communications in Tacto and analyzes them using AI, instead of scattering information across Excel spreadsheets. For market overview, he also uses the raw material data on the Tacto website and the free risk radar at risk.tacto.ai, which generates a company-specific report on the most relevant procurement risks in seconds.

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Conclusion

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The insights from Hydro and Hymer demonstrate that the Middle East crisis is impacting an already strained aluminum market and will have lingering effects for months, even with a rapid easing of tensions. What's crucial is not so much a short-term reaction to every price peak, but rather structured preparation: timely demand securing, reliable and transparent partnerships, dual sourcing, and a clean data foundation that enables informed negotiations.

Barbara Niemann (Head of Procurement at Zerhusen Kartonagen) and Lucas Trümpler (Customer Development at Tacto) report on how Zerhusen transitioned from manual certificate management and Excel lists to structured Supplier Relationship Management. In the webinar, they demonstrate how the company reallocates over 3,200 hours annually from administrative compliance tasks and is now systematically preparing for PPWR, CBAM, and EUDR.