What is moving the price right now?

The September index is not out yet, and for this cycle that is the first relevant piece of information. HPE publishes monthly around the 19th to 24th; on 14 September hpe.de still links only the publication of 24 August. The August reading therefore still applies: solid wood for wooden packaging at 107.53 points, unchanged on the month and up 11.4 percent year on year, with plywood for packaging at 108.91 points and OSB at 105.60 points.

That makes the lead indicator more important, and it contradicts our expectation from the last edition. We described slight downward pressure on new roundwood contracts and expected relief in September. The Q3 contracts show the opposite: Waldbesitzervereinigung Landshut lists spruce fixed lengths 2b+ in BC quality at 125 EUR/fm net, with the price list valid to the end of September; Waldbesitzervereinigung Mitterfels reports a negotiated third-quarter price of 128 EUR/fm net, effectively 135.04 EUR/fm at the 5.5 percent flat rate, with beetle-damaged wood 20 EUR/fm below. The roundwood base is therefore firmly contracted for the current quarter and sits above the level we described as the relief path.

On the cost side the direction is also turning up. On 13 September EUWID reported that the rise in European gas spot prices under way since late June continued through the reporting week. For the wooden packaging industry that is not a side issue: kiln drying and ISPM 15 heat treatment are gas-intensive, and both steps sit between roundwood purchase and delivery. Logistics adds to it: the Kaub gauge stood at 19 to 23 cm on 12 September and 22 to 28 cm on 13 September, and the official forecast holds that level to the end of September.

Demand is split, and for packaging it is broadly supportive. Residential construction is recovering measurably: 21,600 dwellings were approved in June, up 13.8 percent year on year, and 126,300 in the first half, up 15.1 percent and the strongest half-year rise since 2016 (Destatis, 18 August); construction order intake rose 6.0 percent month on month in real terms in June and 11.3 percent year on year (Destatis, 25 August). On the supply side the position stays strained: in July DeSH described weak construction and export markets alongside high raw material, energy and production costs forcing many sawmills to cut capacity. Less sawn timber capacity against recovering construction demand is not a configuration in which the timber base gives way.

The EU Deforestation Regulation now moves into the planning horizon. Following the amendments of December 2024 and December 2025 it applies to large and medium operators from 30 December 2026 and to micro and small enterprises from 30 June 2027. The German implementing act passed cabinet in August; AGDW welcomed the relief measures secured but considers central criticisms unresolved and calls for them to be anchored permanently in law. For buyers of wooden packaging that means due diligence statements and geolocation data have to be in place in a little over three months.

What we watch: the September index once published, the Q4 roundwood negotiations from October, the gas price as a drying cost driver, and EUDR implementation readiness.

What does this mean for procurement in Europe?

Correct your expectation for the timber base, and correct it upwards. We described roundwood relief as likely; the Q3 contracts sit firmly at 125 to 128 EUR/fm net, above the level we assumed, and they run to the end of September. If you built price negotiations on a falling timber base, park that argument until October and insist instead on separate disclosure: timber share, drying energy, ISPM 15 treatment, logistics.

The energy component is what is moving now, and it is verifiable. European gas spot prices have continued to rise since late June, and drying and heat treatment hang directly on them. For every energy surcharge, require the reference index, the adjustment interval and an expiry date rather than accepting a flat markup. If you have an escalator without a downward path, renegotiate it now, while the index is standing still.

The timing for index clauses remains favourable, but the window is closing. The HPE index has been flat since August, and the Q4 roundwood negotiations from October will decide which way it breaks. Set the clause now: HPE monthly average as the anchor, a narrow cap-and-floor band, and explicit participation in falling values.

Bring the EUDR into supplier conversations now, not in December. From 30 December 2026 large and medium operators need due diligence statements with geolocation data, and micro and small enterprises from 30 June 2027. Settle now which of your suppliers falls into which category, who submits the due diligence statement and how the data reaches you. Suppliers who cannot deliver in December are a volume risk, not a compliance topic.

Budget logistics separately. With the Kaub gauge around 25 cm and a forecast holding that level to the end of September, barge volumes are expensive and scarce. For wooden packaging, which is high in volume and low in density, that is a noticeable cost block and belongs negotiated as its own line item.