What is moving the price right now?

The July value is out, and it corrects our expectation: the HPE index for solid wood for wooden packaging rose 0.4 percent to 107.49 points (published 21 July), instead of stagnating or falling for the first time since December as we had considered possible. The other assortments also gained, and the year-on-year gap widened again to 11.6 percent (HPE/University of Bonn; EUWID, 27 July).

The explanation lies in the scissors between the wood base and the cost build-up. Upstream spruce roundwood has continued its correction (120 to 123 EUR/cbm at end-June after more than 130 in March), and this relief should arrive in the packaging assortments with a 4 to 8 week lag. But it runs into a cost wave: gas prices sit 30 percent above end-June and make drying and ISPM 15 treatment more expensive, while transport and logistics costs rise. The cost channel from our risk scenario fully consumed the wood relief in July.

The most striking single value is plywood for packaging: up 2.9 percent in the month to 105.96 points, the strongest rise of all four assortments, and the annual rate is clearly positive again at 4.3 percent for the first time in a long while. The previously calmest assortment is on the move; import dependence and freight act most directly here. OSB added 0.8 percent to 105.67, solid wood for pallets 0.4 percent to 110.27 (up 16.5 percent on the prior year).

The structural picture is unchanged: the softwood deficit in Central Europe holds the floor, and the final US decision on Canadian softwood duties in August determines whether Canadian volumes stay tied to the US market or flow more strongly towards the Atlantic again.

What we watch: the August value as the test of whether the roundwood relief still comes through, the energy pass-through of sawmills and packaging producers, and the US duty decision.

What does this mean for procurement in Europe?

The negotiating position has shifted with the July value: the falling-wood-base argument remains correct (roundwood at 120 to 123 EUR/cbm instead of above 130), but suppliers counter with the energy and logistics argument, and for now the index proves them right. That makes the separate disclosure of wood and energy shares all the more important: only then does the wood relief stay negotiable without swallowing the energy increase wholesale.

Review plywood positions separately: plus 2.9 percent in one month is a breakout, not noise. Anyone needing plywood for export packaging should bring requirements forward before the rise hardens.

For 12-month anchors, the index clause on the HPE monthly value remains the basis; after the July value: set the cap-and-floor tight and contractually secure participation in falling values, because the roundwood relief can still come through in the coming months.

Watch the final US duty decision in August: it decides the Atlantic inflow and with it the supply picture for the fourth quarter.