MATERIAL PRICES
Wood Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
11.05.2026
Current wood price based on the HPE solid wood packaging index (rebased to 100 in January 2026, April reading around 102.5). Trend analysis on indirect Iran-war energy pass-through in drying and sawmill operations, US lumber tariffs of around 45 percent on Canadian wood, and a mild recovery in sawmill order books. Scenarios and procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
METHODOLOGY
The HPE solid wood index for wood packaging tracks the purchase prices of softwood sortiments used by the wood packaging, pallet and export packaging industry across DACH. The index is published monthly by HPE in cooperation with the University of Bonn. It includes domestic and imported wood. Real procurement costs additionally include grading, construction, drying energy, ISPM 15 treatment and logistics, none of which are inside the index itself.
AT A GLANCE
- HPE solid wood packaging index rebased to January 2026 = 100, current April reading around 102.5. Mild upward pressure, no shock.
- The Iran war hits the wood market indirectly through energy costs in drying and sawmills and through container freight rates.
- US lumber tariffs on Canadian wood around 45 percent, redirecting trans-Atlantic flows and slightly easing European imports.
- The European sawmill industry reports a better Q1 order book than Q4 2025, without a full recovery in wood packaging demand.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The HPE solid wood packaging index was rebased to 100 in January 2026, which improves readability versus the old index (last around 104 on the 2015 base). The April reading is around 102.5, a 0.8 percent increase versus March. The index shows mild upward pressure without an abrupt shock, supported by slowly recovering demand and elevated energy and logistics costs.
The Iran war affects the wood market indirectly. Drying plants and sawmills run energy-intensive processes that became more strained with the March TTF spike and are not fully unwound after the TTF decline. Container freight rates remain elevated, which raises the cost of imports from Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. The effects are small compared with metals, but visible in wood-packaging manufacturer margins.
On the supply side, US lumber tariffs of around 45 percent on Canadian wood have redirected trans-Atlantic flows. Canadian wood that previously moved into the US is now seeking European and Asian buyers, slightly easing European spot prices. The effect is small because Canadian volumes are small relative to EU demand, but measurable.
The European sawmill industry reports a better Q1 order book than Q4 2025, without a full recovery in wood-packaging demand yet. Logistics and packaging benefit from a mild consumer-goods uptick, while industrial construction continues to weaken.
For the next four to eight weeks we expect the HPE index in a 101 to 105 band, with moderate upward pressure.
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What does this mean for European procurement?
For 12-month anchors on wood packaging and solid wood components, an index clause on the HPE solid wood packaging index is the clean negotiation basis, with a cap-and-floor band of plus 6 to minus 4 percent against the entry index level. Moderate volatility allows tighter bands than for metals or energy.
Separate the wood-base component from energy and logistics surcharges. Producers that quote flat prices finance two components at once in the current market. Demand a separate energy component pegged to EEX baseload average or TTF quarterly average.
For export packaging, audit the freight-rate component specifically. The Iran war and Hormuz insurance surcharges feed through directly, since many export routes run through or along the Persian Gulf.
For standard EUR-1 and EUR-2 pallets, run a cross-check against the used-pallet market. The pandemic-era oversupply keeps used prices under pressure, while new pallets follow the HPE index.
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Wood Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
For the next four to eight weeks we expect the HPE index in 101 to 105. (1) Moderate demand recovery for wood packaging in Q1 2026. (2) Energy costs still above the prior-year level. (3) US lumber tariffs slightly ease European imports. (4) Sawmill industry reports a better order book.
Risk Scenario
In the risk scenario the HPE index runs to 105 to 110. (1) A Hormuz escalation raises energy pass-through. (2) US lumber tariffs ease, reducing Canadian overflow into Europe. (3) Bark beetle damage in Eastern Europe hits supply. (4) Packaging demand firms more than expected. Probability over eight weeks: 20 to 25 percent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
When the cost of maintaining your current specification (especially if it relies on Canadian softwood) exceeds the cost of re-engineering for available domestic material or exploring OSB-based alternatives. In the current tariff environment, this analysis has shifted significantly in favor of substitution for many applications.
Most price-sensitive are higher grades (Select, #1, #2) with domestic origin, SYP with specific grades, and all Canadian-origin softwood. These segments are where tariff impact, mill capacity constraints, and lead-time pressure show up most acutely.
Combined tariffs on Canadian softwood average 30–45% depending on origin and product category. For procurement teams that historically sourced Canadian SPF or other softwoods at lower cost, these tariffs have fundamentally changed the landed cost equation. This may favor switching to domestic species (SYP, Douglas Fir) or material substitution (OSB-based solutions).
The Framing Lumber Composite Index is a real-time market anchor for softwood lumber spot pricing and reflects actual mill and distribution pricing. It’s tracked daily by Random Lengths and Fastmarkets and is highly relevant for industrial wood procurement. Your actual costs additionally depend on grade, species, moisture, volume, lead time, and tariff exposure on Canadian-origin material.
