What is moving the price right now?

A correction first, and it goes to the heart of our last edition. We described the anti-dumping measures in the cold-rolled case as still pending and as the open upside trigger. That was already out of date when it appeared: on 7 August the European Commission published definitive anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled flat steel from five countries, India 9.5 percent, Japan 28 percent, Taiwan 20.7 percent for named producers and 27 percent for all others, Türkiye 5.6 to 9.7 percent and Vietnam 16 percent. The jump is no longer pending, it has happened, and the price move since then shows its effect.

Because the assessments have risen sharply. Cold-rolled coil Northern Europe stood at 850 to 880 EUR/t ex-works on 13 September, reaching 890 to 920 EUR/t in individual deals; on 13 August it was 825 to 830 EUR/t. Hot-dip galvanized followed to 850 to 870 EUR/t, occasionally 880. At the midpoint that is around 38 EUR/t in one month and 65 EUR/t in three. For context on the wider complex, heavy plate also rose, to 850 to 875 EUR/t for 8 to 40 mm on 10 September after 820 to 850 EUR/t a week earlier. The entire flat steel structure is moving up.

The second and by now more important bottleneck is quotas. Under the regulation in force since 1 July, the duty-free cold-rolled quota in category 4A was cut to 1.5 million t from 3.9 million t, and the quota for coated products to 1.6 million t from 2.4 million t. How tight that is shows in the position on 13 September, in the final month of the period: cold-rolled sheet under the residual quota is fully exhausted, cold-rolled coil from South Korea stands at 86.35 percent, coated sheet from Taiwan at 94.12 percent and from South Korea at 91.59 percent, and coated sheet under the FTA residual quota is also full. The quarterly period reopens on 1 October, and the melt-and-pour requirement takes effect the same day, with evidence rules the Commission clarified on 28 and 31 August: a mill test certificate stating country of melt and pour and heat number, with a one-year transition to 30 September 2027.

On the logistics side the situation has turned against the buyer. Our end-of-August assessment that the gauge recovery removes the basis for low-water surcharges is out of date. On 7 September Argus reported that vessels were loading only around 40 percent of capacity, that freight rates had risen 40 to 60 percent, and that one steel mill reported cancelled trains and very low raw material stocks. The Kaub gauge stood at 21 cm on 11 and 12 September and 25 cm on 13 September; the 14-day forecast from the Federal Institute of Hydrology gives a 100 percent probability of staying below 77 cm through 26 September.

Demand is not carrying this rise. German machinery and equipment exports in the first half came to 99.3 billion EUR, 0.8 percent below the prior year in nominal terms and 2.5 percent lower price-adjusted, even though June improved by 6.8 percent. The German construction association lowered its 2026 forecast on 11 September, and on 12 September Gestamp described growing Chinese competitive pressure on European automotive supply. Mills accordingly justify their increases with costs rather than order intake: on 10 September market participants explicitly cited rising electricity and gas costs as margin pressure.

What we watch: the first deals after the quota reset on 1 October, gauge levels on the middle Rhine, the effect of the definitive anti-dumping duties on import offers, and how long price increases hold without a demand recovery.

What does this mean for procurement in Europe?

Delete the anti-dumping risk from your scenario list and replace it with a calculation. The duties have been definitive since 7 August and their levels are known. Work every import offer from India, Japan, Taiwan, Türkiye or Vietnam through at the specific rate instead of accepting a flat risk premium; at 28 percent for Japan the price difference to European material disappears entirely, while at 5.6 to 9.7 percent for Türkiye it often does not. That differentiation is now your advantage rather than your risk.

Quota capacity is the new bottleneck and belongs on the table before 1 October. The category 4A cold-rolled quota was cut by more than 60 percent and the residual quota for cold-rolled sheet is already full. Before the reset, settle with your distributor which origins will still have quota capacity in the fourth quarter, assign the quota risk explicitly in the contract, and require melt-and-pour documentation as an annex, naming the substitute documents you will accept during the transition to 30 September 2027.

On low water the opposite of our last recommendation now applies, and that belongs said openly. Surcharges that were reclaimable at the end of August are justified today. So do not negotiate whether, negotiate the mechanism: linkage to the official Kaub gauge, banding, automatic expiry above a defined level and evidence per shipment. With freight rates up 40 to 60 percent and vessels loading 40 percent, the rail and road alternative should be priced now, not in October.

Negotiate the premium, not the base price. The base price follows quotas, duties and hot-rolled coil, and you have little leverage on it. What is negotiable is processing, cutting, batch sizes, delivery windows and logistics. Require separate disclosure, and check the customs classification of your sheet part imports as well: with the many commodity codes in this area, classification decides the CBAM burden and is the single most expensive error in an import calculation.

Take the demand data into the negotiation. Machinery exports 2.5 percent below the prior year price-adjusted, a lowered construction forecast and the mills' own stated cost pressure from electricity and gas together describe a market where increases come from the supply side. That is not an argument against the price, but it is a good argument against extending it into annual contracts.