Rising tariffs, political escalation, and growing uncertainty in global supply chains – the trade war between the US, China, and the EU is picking up speed again in 2025. With Donald Trump's return to the White House and the announcement of sweeping tariff increases on Asian and European products, German industrial companies are also under mounting pressure. For mid-market procurement teams, one question is more urgent than ever: How do we stay capable of acting when geopolitical tensions become a permanent reality?

In this webinar, Fabian Liebscher and Torben Hinrichs of Tacto examined both the political causes and the concrete effects on procurement processes – and showed how companies can respond with systematic risk management, digital transparency, and a strategic realignment of their sourcing.

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Tariffs as a Political Tool – Why Procurement Is Feeling It Now

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Tariffs are nothing new, but their role as an instrument of political power is regaining importance. The US is deliberately using punitive tariffs to reduce trade deficits, promote domestic production, and strengthen its negotiating position toward China, the EU, and other partners. The consequence: an exponential rise in tariff burdens – according to a Fitch forecast, effective US tariff rates already stand at 22% and could reach historic highs in 2025.

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For companies, this means rising prices for imported raw materials, longer lead times, and serious planning uncertainty in procurement. Globalized supply networks – standard in German machinery and automotive manufacturing – are hit hardest. But regionally focused mid-market companies also need to respond, because they feel indirect price increases as well, for example through their tier-1 suppliers.

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Game Theory Meets Procurement: Trade Tariffs as a Strategic Dilemma

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A central part of the webinar was a game-theory perspective on the current conflict. Introducing tariffs is often understood as a rational move for short-term advantage – much like the well-known prisoner's dilemma. In practice, however, this strategy typically leads to an equilibrium with low overall welfare, as both sides adopt protectionist measures and mutual damage increases.

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For practitioners, this means that as long as there is no stable cooperation between economic blocs, volatile conditions are to be expected. Procurement needs to prepare for this – not only operationally but also strategically.

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Using Room to Maneuver – with Structured Risk Management

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The webinar makes clear that proactive procurement organizations can use the current crisis as a starting point for a future-proof setup. Three priorities stand out:

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1. Increase supply chain transparency
   Only those who know which items are affected by which tariffs can make informed decisions. Digital tools like Tacto enable analysis by item and country of origin down to the tier-2 level.
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2. Diversify the sourcing strategy
   Companies with components heavily dependent on the US or China are particularly exposed. Dual sourcing, nearshoring, or shifting to lower-tariff sourcing markets such as Vietnam or Mexico are gaining importance.
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3. Review contracts and Incoterms
   Who is responsible for customs clearance directly affects input tax deductibility, risk allocation, and actual total costs. Incoterms such as EXW, DDP, or DAP in particular should be scrutinized with customs responsibility in mind.

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Digital Solutions as the Key to Resilience

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In an environment that can change fundamentally within days, traditional procurement planning is no longer enough. Companies need real-time information to respond quickly and confidently to geopolitical developments. This is exactly where modern digital procurement platforms come in.

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Solutions like Tacto make complex supply networks transparent, expose tariff risks down to the item level, and simulate cost developments under different scenarios. This makes it possible not only to identify potential bottlenecks early but also to derive targeted measures – such as building safety stock for critical commodity groups, approaching alternative suppliers in a targeted way, or evaluating nearshoring potential.

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The big advantage: procurement gains not only speed but also depth in decision-making. Strategic choices such as dual sourcing or make-or-buy analyses no longer rest on gut feeling but on reliable, up-to-date data. In times of global uncertainty, operational reaction turns into strategic resilience.

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Conclusion

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The new trade war does not have to hit companies with full force – if they are prepared. Those who create transparency across supply chains, origins, and Incoterms and adapt their sourcing strategies can not only minimize risks but also capture opportunities. Mid-market companies in particular should take the current situation as an occasion to reposition their procurement organization digitally and strategically.

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Outlook

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Geopolitical tensions are more likely to increase than to ease in the near future. Protectionist measures could also gain ground in Europe. At the same time, regulatory pressure around sustainability (CBAM, CSRD) keeps growing, adding further complexity to global sourcing. Companies that invest in digital transparency and strategic sourcing now secure long-term resilience – and competitive advantages.

Tariffs are back – and they are hitting industrial procurement with full force. The webinar makes one thing clear: those who are unprepared risk rising costs, disrupted supply chains, and flying blind on strategy. The good news? With structured risk management, an adapted sourcing strategy, and digital tools, mid-market companies stay capable of acting.