ENERGY PRICES
Electricity Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
28.09.2026
Current power price based on EEX German baseload Cal-27 (128.37 EUR/MWh as of 25 September, down 2.8 percent on 11 September). Trend analysis on spot peaks of up to 740 EUR/MWh, the lower gas price, the gap to France, the upcoming 2027 grid fees and the industrial power price. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
AT A GLANCE
- German day-ahead power averages 256.55 EUR/MWh on 14 September and reaches 740.01 EUR/MWh in the quarter-hour (EPEX). Flexible evening loads are worth more than they have been in a long time.
- EEX Cal-27 closes at 128.37 EUR/MWh on 25 September, down 2.8 percent on 11 September, after the series high of 135.80 EUR/MWh on 14 September. The decline follows gas.
- France trades 2027 at 87.30 EUR/MWh, 41.07 EUR/MWh below Germany. Cal-28 is almost 30 EUR/MWh below Cal-27.
- The federal subsidy for transmission grids falls to 5.525 billion EUR in 2027 from 6.5 billion EUR (BMWE, 2 September). 2027 grid fees arrive in early October.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
The spot market showed new extremes in September. On 14 September the German day-ahead price averaged 256.55 EUR/MWh over the day, and at 19:45 the quarter-hour reached 740.01 EUR/MWh. On 22 September the daily average was 226.18 EUR/MWh with a peak of 647.50 EUR/MWh. Over 21 to 27 September spot averaged 154.19 EUR/MWh, while three days also saw negative prices. The peaks fall in the evening, when solar output ends and gas plants set the price.
The forward market, by contrast, eased slightly. EEX German baseload Cal-27 closed at 128.37 EUR/MWh on 25 September, after the series high of 135.80 EUR/MWh on 14 September. The main reason is gas: TTF fell 9.4 percent in the week to 25 September to 72.07 EUR/MWh, as several LNG cargoes passed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in months. Power gave up much less, down 2.8 percent on 11 September, because low gas storage and the rejected reopening of the strait keep winter risks in the price.
The gap to France remains wide. French power for 2027 traded at 87.30 EUR/MWh on 25 September, 41.07 EUR/MWh below Germany. Austria, at 142.59 EUR/MWh, sits above Germany. For companies with sites in several countries that is a real cost difference, not just a market detail. Cal-28, at 98.88 EUR/MWh, trades almost 30 EUR/MWh below Cal-27, so the market expects easing after next year.
On the cost side, grid fees come on top in October. Under the economy ministry's draft law of 2 September, transmission system operators are to receive a federal subsidy of 5.525 billion EUR a year for 2027 to 2029, after 6.5 billion EUR in 2026. Provisional 2027 grid fees are expected in early October and are likely to rise as a result. Electricity-intensive companies get relief through the industrial power price: BAFA sets the reference price at 87.44 EUR/MWh and the target price at 50 EUR/MWh, with applications possible until 31 March 2027.
What we watch: provisional 2027 grid fees, gas injection pace and temperature forecasts for October.
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What does this mean for procurement in Europe?
Use the decline for partial 2027 volumes and look at 2028. Cal-27 is more than 7 EUR/MWh below the 14 September high, and Cal-28 almost 30 EUR/MWh below Cal-27. If you run tranche-based procurement, take a 2027 tranche now and check whether part of your 2028 demand can be hedged at the much lower level. Waiting for a further decline is a bet on gas and weather.
Revalue flexible loads. Quarter-hour peaks of 740 EUR/MWh and negative prices in the same week show how much shifting load is worth. If you can move processes from the evening into midday, you save directly on spot or structured contracts. Ask your supplier for a contract that rewards this flexibility rather than paying a flat baseload price.
Build the 2027 grid fees in before you set budgets. The lower federal subsidy will raise grid fees, and provisional values arrive in early October. Plan this item separately from the energy price and check whether you qualify for reduced grid fees or the industrial power price; the BAFA application is possible until 31 March 2027.
Check suppliers' power-related surcharges against their actual procurement. A supplier with forward hedges does not feel spot peaks directly. Require a split into energy, grid, levies and margin. For suppliers with sites in France, a gap of 41 EUR/MWh to Germany is also an argument for shifting volumes there where quality and logistics allow.
Keep gas in view as the main driver. As long as gas plants set the price in many hours, the power forward price follows TTF with a lag. A fall in TTF below 70 EUR/MWh would be a signal for further tranches, and a rise above 85 EUR/MWh a signal to hold off on further purchases until conditions settle.
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Electricity Price Outlook: Assessment from Our Procurement Intelligence Team
Base Scenario
In this band over the next four to six weeks. (1) The lower TTF of 72.07 EUR/MWh pulls the forward price down, (2) low gas storage and the rejected reopening of Hormuz keep winter risks in the price, (3) spot peaks of up to 740 EUR/MWh show how tight the market is in the evening hours, (4) Cal-28 almost 30 EUR/MWh lower limits upward pressure on longer tenors.
Risk Scenario
TTF rises back above 85 EUR/MWh, an early cold spell meets gas storage below target, or French nuclear availability deteriorates over winter. The 2027 grid fees arrive in early October with a federal subsidy cut by almost 1 billion EUR. Probability 25 to 30 percent over the next three months.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because the wholesale electricity price in Europe follows the merit order principle: the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand sets the price. As long as gas plants are the marginal producer during peak hours, gas prices continue to directly influence electricity prices.
Because the day-ahead market reacts every quarter-hour to supply and demand. Hours with high renewable output push the price below zero at times, while gas plants set high peaks in the evening: on 14 September the German day-ahead spot averaged 256.55 EUR/MWh over the day, and at 19:45 the quarter-hour reached 740.01 EUR/MWh; in the week from 21 to 27 September the average was 154.19 EUR/MWh, with negative prices on three days. The year-ahead future smooths these swings and stood at 128.37 EUR/MWh on 25 September, which is the more relevant reference point for most industrial supply contracts.
Because negative hours do not automatically reduce the price of a standardized industrial supply contract. Most industrial consumers buy on forward contracts or structured PPAs where negative spot hours have limited or no impact on the contracted rate.
When the supplier operates an electricity-intensive process and their procurement logic actually tracks wholesale markets. The claim must be verifiable against EEX forward curves and actual contract structures, not against generic 'energy prices are high' statements.
Because household electricity prices are barely relevant for industrial procurement. For purchasing, wholesale prices (EEX base and peak), PPA rates, and the structure of industrial supply contracts matter, not the consumer tariff with its taxes, levies, and grid fees.
