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Steel Price Today: Price, Trends and Forecast 2026 | Tacto
08.06.2026
Current steel price based on the Fastmarkets HRC index Northern Europe (around 691 EUR/t at end of May, ArcelorMittal list 750 EUR/t delivered, transactions 700 to 720 EUR/t). Trend analysis on the 19 May 2026 Parliament vote, the TRQ regime from 1 July (quota cut to 18.3 Mt, out-of-quota duty 50 percent), the melt-and-pour requirement from 1 October, and the definitive HRC anti-dumping duties on Egypt, Japan and Vietnam. Procurement recommendations for European industrial buyers.
The current price move is not limited to hot-rolled coil. Cold-rolled and coated flat steels are moving with it, with the CRC premium over HRC compressed to 20 to 30 EUR/t in May. This points to a tightly coupled correction across the European flat steel market.
AT A GLANCE
- HRC Northern Europe at 691 EUR/t ex-works at end of May (Fastmarkets), stable after 702.50 EUR/t in early May; transactions 700 to 720 EUR/t.
- From 1 July: duty-free volumes halve to 18.3 million tonnes, the out-of-quota duty doubles to 50 percent, and from October the melt-and-pour requirement applies.
- ArcelorMittal holds 750 EUR/t delivered; H2 contract offers sit 50 to 120 EUR/t above spot, end-customer demand stays weak.
- Negotiate H2 contracts now with an index anchor (Fastmarkets monthly average), not the list; require melt-and-pour documentation as a contract annex.
Contents
What is moving the price right now?
On 19 May 2026 the European Parliament adopted the new steel safeguard regulation by 606 votes to 16. From 1 July it replaces the old safeguard: duty-free volumes halve to 18.3 million tonnes, the out-of-quota duty doubles to 50 percent, and from 1 October the melt-and-pour evidence requirement applies.
HRC Northern Europe stands at around 691 EUR/t ex-works at the end of May (Fastmarkets), stable after 702.50 EUR/t in early May. Transactions are reported between 700 and 720 EUR/t. ArcelorMittal holds its list at 750 EUR/t delivered, and H2 contract offers sit 50 to 120 EUR/t above spot.
End-customer demand stays weak, driven by falling car sales. VW sold 5 percent fewer vehicles in Europe in the first quarter and group profit fell 14 percent. That caps mill increases despite the new import rules.
The import side tightens further in parallel: the European Commission imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil from Egypt, Japan and Vietnam, while India was found not to be dumping. Together with the safeguard and the ongoing CRC case, import options for the second half shrink.
What we watch: the Official Journal publication that makes the quota allocation and the melt-and-pour transition rules binding.
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What does this mean for procurement in DACH?
For 12-month anchors on HRC, CRC, HDG or sections, close this week with an index clause on the Fastmarkets monthly average, a cap-and-floor band of plus 8 to minus 10 percent, and a transition clause for the 1 July TRQ switch.
Secure the last import tranche under the old duty regime, but require the melt-and-pour documentation as a contract annex. Suppliers who cannot provide the melt evidence from October drop out as a source.
Start qualifying alternative suppliers now, not in September. The Official Journal changes the approved supplier list, and requalification lead time is longer than the window to October.
Steel Price Forecast: Our Procurement Intelligence Team's Assessment
Base Scenario
Index stable around 691 EUR/t, ArcelorMittal list 750 EUR/t delivered, buyers booking below 700 ex-works. From 1 July the quota cut to 18.3 Mt, the 50 percent out-of-quota duty and from October the melt-and-pour requirement support the floor. Weak car demand (VW Q1 minus 5 percent sales, minus 14 percent group profit) caps increases.
Risk Scenario
Fast Council adoption plus Official Journal, definitive HRC anti-dumping duties and the parallel CRC case, US Section 232 at 50 percent and post-summer restocking. Probability 25 to 30 percent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Since January 2026, importers must acquire CBAM certificates reflecting the CO2 footprint of production. Costs depend on the country of origin, actual emission intensity, and the current EU ETS price. A complete import calculation now needs to include CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability under the new safeguard instrument from July 2026, and the risk of longer transit times. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after full cost accounting.
HRC (hot-rolled coil) is the base material. Cold-rolled steel (CRC) requires an additional rolling step and typically sits 80 to 130 EUR/t above HRC. Hot-dip galvanized steel (HDG) adds a further coating surcharge. In the current market, CRC and HDG prices sometimes rise faster than HRC because tight availability and higher energy costs hit downstream products harder. For negotiations, this means: not every steel price increase affects all products equally, and a breakdown into base price, product surcharge, and energy component is the most important lever against blanket demands.
By breaking down the increase into its components: base material cost (HRC benchmark), processing surcharge, energy and logistics components. If the surcharge rises faster than the base material and public benchmarks cannot explain the gap, the increase is at least partly supplier-driven. A clean should-cost model is the best tool against non-transparent price adjustments.
Since January 2026, importers must purchase CBAM certificates, and the new safeguard instrument from July 2026 adds further costs. A full landed-cost calculation that includes CBAM certificate costs, documentation overhead, quota availability, and transit risk is essential. In many cases, the nominally cheaper third-country offer is no longer the better economic alternative after total cost comparison.
HRC is the most liquid benchmark, but the premium gap to CRC and HDG can shift significantly depending on energy costs and capacity utilization. A clean price comparison should always separate base material cost from processing surcharges.
